There remains the potential to see snow Thursday night into Friday, accumulating snow is still a question but on average amounts look light. Furthermore, there was an additional question mark added to the forecast overnight. It is not a slam dunk; the forecast is up in the air, and we will not be able to nail down amounts until closer to the event. I will provide an update regarding the solutions and where the best chance to see snow is, also, why you don't need to raid the stores yet!
WHAT: Things that have changed today, the EURO model keeps all the moisture along the coast and off the coast. This would be solution two below. The Euro is the "king" of models one of the best in the world, that is why I'm keeping the snow chances at 50% and 25% for now, it is getting close to likely 75% but not yet.
A developing coastal low and strong Canadian High Pressure will impact the state on Thursday the exact location of the low to the coast will affect who sees what. Forecasting snow is a science, and in NC it is hard to see snow; below is a map based on many things. The map below shows the best chance of seeing snow fall from the sky, not accumulating; we will talk about that tomorrow. This map is based on the ensembles (many different solutions variations of the same model) and short-range models. Right now, the favored locations to see snow falling from the sky will be Raleigh and points east. The trend overnight has been the same north and west, so Durham west, we will watch it closely. The mountains will also see snow.
Forecasting snow is not a slam dunk; it is a science, something that is likely the most accurate is forecasting with ensembles. I have taken all the ensembles and put together a map, right now the best chance to see 1” of snow is along i95 (purple 75%) and in the mountains elsewhere 25%-50%. Forecasting is never a grantee; it is a prediction; this system is really causing problems for the models. I think there’s a good chance that we at least see flakes fly, but accumulating snow is a question. The map below is where you great chance to see 1” and 2" of snow, that is not much and will be gone within hours
2" about the same given the unknows
The solutions that all the models agree with.
Solution 1 “snow lovers want this” the low-pressure system develops and rides very close to the coast, this would spread moisture inland, and we could see some or a rain/snow mix. Another question to this solution is how much cold air we see.
Solution 2, the low-pressure system develops and pushes away from the coast and only along the i95 corridor would see some winter weather.
WHICH SOLUTION: The favored solution would be along solution 1 bring some impacts to the state. However, the models remain fluid, and I’m not convinced yet, especially since the euro is solution 2. Another thing involved in the forecast is how the energy impacts our western mountains. Again, all of this is very fluid and not set in stone. I would give it a 50/50 chance.
AMOUNTS: I know the real answer everyone wants to know is how much snow/ ice will come down. Be patient here, with it being 2+ days away and major different solutions among models. I can't simply sit here and competently put out a snowfall map, while other news stations and pages are that's just throwing a bunch of numbers on a map and calling it a day essentially. Here are some things going against seeing much accumulation 1) Temperatures on the surface are going to hower right around or above freezing the whole event, the ground temps are very warm 40s and 50s. This would help melt the snow as it hits the ground 2) While the raw models are pushing out some impressive amounts, there's really not any support for that at the moment 3) The high-pressure at the moment remains in an area that is not favorable for a lot of cold air. This is one thing the models are struggling with thus we are seeing big amounts, please be cautious when looking at models
FORECAST TIMING:
Here’s a guideline of our forecast:
Today- make or break day
Tonight- First Call Snowfall map?
Wednesday Second or maybe third call, everyone panics lol
Thursday - Final call Thursday Night- Event begins..
DON’T PANIC: Despite some of the other pages calling out major impacts and notices to prepare now, we are not looking that in fact, only about 30% or less of that happening right now. Please stay with trusted sources over the next few pages; people who make you pay for the forecasts are desperate for “clicks.”