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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Active Weather: Explaining the Science Behind the Forecast

Meteorology 101: We’re heading into a more active period of weather over the next 5-7 days; I believe in explaining the science behind the forecast. So here we go. Below, you’re looking at the European Ensemble Forecast over the next 15 days for Raleigh as an example. As you can see, there are a lot of numbers, and each horizontal line represents an ensemble member.

What are Ensembles?

Models run ensembles with the main operational run; ensembles are the best way to predict weather accurately. However, many people don’t like showing them because they’re confusing for the public. What happens with an ensemble run is that, for example, the European model has 50 ensemble members, and each member runs, but the starting atmosphere is slightly altered. This helps models predict the atmosphere better, because Earth is so large we can’t get data everywhere 24 hours a day. So, computers predict some changes in the atmosphere, which can impact storm systems. While you’ll see all these ensembles, some have significant variations at times, which are outliers. So, this helps forecasters make the best forecast.


Looking at the latest ensembles from the European model run, all 50 members show at least 1”, and more than 90% of the members show over 3” of rain expected in Raleigh over the next 7 days, with some showing locally higher amounts.


The Bottom Line: Rain is coming a few showers tonight across the state, widespread rain is likely Saturday statewide, and another robust storm system is expected Tuesday that will bring several inches of rain. Get your rain gear ready!

 
 
 

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