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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD THE NEXT FEW DAYS; JUST YOUR AVERAGE SPRING WEEK IN NC

Writer: ncwxauthority
ncwxauthority
Apr 21, 2020
2 min read

Today was a great day across NC, mostly sunny with highs in the 60s and 70s. We have a cold front passing through the state; tonight will be much cooler with lows in the 30s and 40s across the state. I would bring in your plants Greensboro west just to be on the safe side.


LOOKING AHEAD: Wednesday looks excellent, mostly sunny with highs in the 60s and 70s; it will be a little cooler than today and less humid. Great day to get outside with the dogs or have lunch outside. Your daily forecast graphic is below, looking ahead at the end of the week. Thursday looks active with rain likely throughout the day and cooler for most of the day, we will watch a warm front move north in the evening this could bring the threat of Severe Weather the details are up in the air for now; I'll have more in the next section.



THURSDAY: I'm closely watching the potential for the 3rd round of Severe Weather in 2 weeks across the Deep South and even parts of North Carolina! As usual, we have more questions than answers. Right now, significant Severe Weather looks likely across the southern parts of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida Thursday. For us here in NC, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 and 1/5 risk across all of NC. I'm currently watching it, as we all know, many factors need to come together for severe weather. As we talked about During Monday mornings event, instability is critical. What will be the main player for Severe on Thursday will be the warm front as it advances forward, we will be in the 50s for most of the day on Thursday then the warm air will surge forward. This is something that models handle poorly. I don't like crying wolf for Severe Weather 3 days out. It is so unpredictable 72hours out, and I feel it just causes unnecessary fear. As we always do, stay tuned for updates and be prepared. Stay tuned over the next 48 hours as we get more model runs and new data.



Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook


3 DAY FORECAST: The next 3 days: Wednesday looks great, mostly sunny with highs in the 60s and 70s it will be a little cooler than today and less humid. Thursday widespread rain likely with the threat of some storms and maybe severe weather south. Friday clearing and partly sunny with highs in the 70s for most. Stay tuned for updates on our Facebook Page and website; I hope you have a great rest of the week!









 
 
 

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