Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Increasing Rain Chances along with the Risk of some Flooding.

Ethan Clark

May 10, 2025

1 min read

Here comes the rain, and a good amount of it. Our pattern will shift a good bit starting on Sunday, lasting through at least Tuesday night. This will result in higher-than-normal rain chances. It won't rain all day every day, but there will be periods of showers and some thunderstorms statewide each day (severe weather threat is pretty low though). A frontal system will stall across the Eastern US, which will result in waves of disturbances working through North Carolina over the next 72 hours. We will see widespread rain chances, and radar will be your friend to see when there are breaks.

Rainfall: This pattern favors moderate rain events, which could result in localized flooding in spots and increase river and creek levels throughout the state. Most of the state is in a drought, so this is much needed, but we don't want it to come down too fast at one time. I expect a good portion of the state to see 2-4 inches of rain through Wednesday, with some areas along the Foothills (Blue Ridge Escarpment) seeing 4+ inches of rain. There will likely be some localized flooding in spots that normally flood here and there, so be aware of that across the state, especially where higher rainfall totals are set up from bands.

Due to extensive cloud coverage, cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected for the most part before they turn much warmer by the end of next week.

I'll keep you updated with radar updates and model trends here and there. Have a good rest of your Saturday.

-Ethan

Mountains

Raleigh area

Increasing Rain Chances along with the Risk of some Flooding.

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