Winter Weather Update: Wednesday, early afternoon.

Winter Storm Update: Happy Wednesday everyone, it is around lunchtime as I write this update. There are still more questions than answers right now, but there is some clarity from the last 12 hours. It is still looking increasingly clear that a significant Winter Storm will impact a large portion of North Carolina this weekend. You know how I said models were weirdly alined the last few days and something might crack, well shocker they trended northward. Absolutely no surprise there, as I’ve been saying for the vast majority of the state impacted by this it will not be an all snow event by any means. This is looking like a messy sleet/freezing rain setup the not fun winter storms these suck, but if you’ve been around the block long enough in North Carolina an all snow nice event is rare outside of the mountains. I do not think this will be an all-snow event at all for most; there will be a mixed bag of precipitation despite what your apps are saying. I've spent most of the morning and late night looking through data and making a forecast again. The goal is to not be first; it is to be accurate and help you prepare. 

-What has changed? Well, I am removing the scenario 2 (replaced it with scenario 3) and adjusted 1 a little bit. Models are trending further north and a little warmer overall so that would not support the all snow scenario with lower ice. Everything I am looking and my thinking from past events suggest this. There is trend among the models for lower moisture this would be welcomed, because we’re on the cusp of a potentially impactful Ice Storm for a large portion of the state if trends holds.  

📌WHAT: A very strong Arctic Cold front is expected to move through the state on Friday night. Ahead of that, there could actually be some light rain in parts of the state on Friday, but the main event looks to be Saturday evening into Monday morning. A parent high to the north of North Carolina will supply Arctic cold air that'll filter in this weekend, a key for winter weather in North Carolina. A low-pressure system will move across the Central US and the Gulf, and a second low will develop along the Carolina coast. This is all going to set the stage for a blockbuster Winter Storm. At this time, confidence continues to increase. However, where the forecast is still up for debate could with two pieces of energy, one across Baja California and another piece dropping over Central Alberta, how these come together will give us an idea of how bad the freezing rain/sleet will actually be. Everyone is praying for sleet and not Freezing rain. 

📌Forecast: We remain 3-4 days out from the start of the event, so no one has a clue how much snow and ice you'll actually see, but the potential is there for significant accumulation of at least some aspect of this. I know we haven't had a major statewide Winter Storm in many years, but that could change this weekend.  

So here are my favorite scenario maps, to be transparent with you and show the setup as it looks now. 

Scenario 1️⃣: Starting sometime late Saturday and lasting into prob late Sunday/Monday AM: A strong area of low pressure moves along the coast, and moisture overruns it into a below-freezing area most of the state. In the Battleground it could start as some snow/likely sleet toward central NC, but then a warm nose aloft, which is warm air above your head, develops and becomes strong; as a result, we have a battleground for most of the state. This will mean switching between mainly sleet/ and Freezing rain (the worst). Significant accumulation would be possibe and in areas where more freezing rain occurs, power outages would be likely too. NW NC would see mostly snow in the dark blue, with some higher accumulation possible still some mixing too. A cold rain along the Outer Banks is likely and the beeches along the coastline with some mixing not ruled. 

Scenario2️⃣ (Was 3️⃣): This is honestly still has a lower odds of happening, but given we're still 3-4 days out, and I've been around the block long enough to know things change. Models really underestimated the high to the north, and the low is further inland, bringing lower impacts from rain/mix to Central and Eastern, and a more icy setup for the Central /Western half of the state. This would be an overall lower-impact setup with lower moisture. Most models do not have this, but I don't want to completely write it off. 

😎 The Bottom Line: We're still 24-36 hours away before we can start to really nail down how much snow/sleet/ice everyone sees, but the one thing I can say with my over a decade in weather forecasting across this state. The signal for an impactful  event for many is there over 3 days away with moderate to high confidence of at least some winter weather happening at this point. Don't get caught up in pretty snow most aren’t seeing that; there's potential for a significant ice storm in parts of the state.I think there will be a lot of mixing and make it icy like normal. Unlike normal, bitterly cold air is likely from this weekend through early next work week, so stuff that falls is staying around, and the cold could be dangerous. 

-So Ethan, what do I do now? I would start making plans for Winter Weather impacts this weekend, prepare for extended travel problems starting sometime late Saturday for most and lasting well into next week. Know Your Heat Source: If you lose power, how are you staying warm? If you have a fireplace or wood stove, make sure you have dry wood ready. Never use a gas oven or stove to heat your house; that’s a carbon monoxide risk. Don't raid the grocery stores. There is no reason to panic if we're prepared; we will be just fine. 

Watchout for hype and scary models being posted. Yes, the potential is there, but some of the stuff being posted, folks haven’t even looked to see if the output is even able. There is more to the models than just snow/ice maps. 

- I know folks want more, but I can't, with confidence or even smart, give you exact amounts right now. We will be watching the trends and will release snow/ice maps when I think it is reasonably appropriate. I'll be providing as many updates as possible over the coming days. I've cleared my schedule and will tell you how it is. I will do my best to provide an accurate forecast that won't let you down. 

-Ethan