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Mountains

Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.


A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.




The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.


-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

WINTER STORM THREAT LOOMING?

The potential for a Winter Storm to impact NC is increasing, a pre-Christmas snowfall is looking possible for some parts of NC this weekend. Don't get your bread and milk yet. Many ingredients are coming together to allow for a Winter Storm this weekend across NC, a cold high pressure to our north and a developing coastal low to the south are prefect for a winter storm NC. Just how those ingredients come together will ultimately impact our storm. It looks to be a classic setup for the Carolinas, with cold air to the north, and a wet system moving in from the south in the Gulf. The questions, of course, are what track will it take, how much cold air is available, what type or types of precipitation will we see, and how much. These details will be tough to nail down until we get a little closer, but just know that some messy winter weather is a possibility for Saturday and Sunday in some parts of NC.


This will be a Miller "A" storm meaning a coastal low will ride along the Gulf coast and ride up the east coast. There will be a sharp cut off where snow or just a cold rain falls. Above is the current thinking of the best area to see snowfall this weekend!


Conclusion: This system is still out over the Pacific, while models are showing snowfall over NC this weekend. Until this storm gets over California which will allow data to be collected, how wet, the exact track all make huge differences regarding snow in NC. For those of you who like to look at long range models for snow accumulations, remember this: No matter how "promising" models look this far out, they rarely verify, therefore our official snowfall map is still days away. Everything is on the table, it is likely we will see wet weather just what it is still developing. Keep checking back for updates throughout the week on our Facebook page and Website! Next update tomorrow sometime!



 
 
 

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