800x500.png){kind=small}
Winter Storm/Ice Storm on the way to most of North Carolina!
Saturday Morning Winter Storm/Ice Storm Update: Good morning, all. Our forecast remains mostly on track. A significant to potentially major Winter Storm/Ice Storm is expected to begin later today into tonight across the state. After looking through the data this morning, I have not changed the forecast much at all. The main change is that I adjusted the arrival of the precipitation just a tad, and moved some of the higher ice accrual just a tad north and west.
-Condtions will go downhill from west to east this afternoon and evening, with most travel problems starting mainly after sunset across the west and after about 8/9PM across Central North Carolina. ( My timing map is more so when roads start to get bad stuff could start earlier)
-Now is the time to make last-minute preparations for extended travel problems and power outages across a good portion of the state. There is potential in the hardest-hit areas from Freezing Rain that power will be out for an extended period of time. Make sure you have ways to stay warm, and charge up the backup power banks and anything that you must have work during power outages, medical stuff etc. Gusty winds of 25-40MPH Sunday night into Monday will not help anything!
-The best chance for numerous to widespread power outages appears to be mainly from Raleigh and especially points west, with lower chances of outages as you head east. No, not everyone will lose power. We can't pinpoint who exactly the map is, just where I think there will be many power outages. Down trees can also result from ice buildup, so be aware.
-There is no reason to panic, I have a plan in place hunkerdown and we will get through this together, cheer for more sleet less Freezing Rain. Sleet is the ice-cube-like thing that is like sprinkles, and Freezing Rain is like icing.
-Freezing rain is a mess and creates terrible driving conditions with even small amounts; higher amounts can cause power outages/ infrastructure problems and trees to fall. As you approach more than about .25 of an inch, you start seeing Ice Storm, and this results in numerous power outages. As you move towards .50 to .75 of an inch of ice, you see widespread power outages, and some are long-lasting. There is potential for significant Freezing Rain across parts of Central and Western North Carolina this weekend
.
Here's my updated Freezing Rain forecast as of 8AM, the only change I really made is I pulled some of the heavier further NW to account for the uncertainty.
-The Significant Ice Likely Zone (0.40" – 0.65”): Where: Stretching from Transylvania County east through Charlotte, up into the Raleigh Metro, and points North and a little east along the I-85 corridor. (HATCHED AREA ON IMAGE 1)The area where I think the highest potential for more than .65” ice accrual is highest is Southern Macon County, parts of Jackson County, mainly south of Sylvia, Transylvania County, Henderson County, and Polk County. These areas have a greater concern for more ice upwards of .75”, crippling ice if that happens.
Power: We are crossing the tipping point here. The weight of this ice is enough to snap lines and break cross-arms on utility poles. You need to expect scattered to numerous/widespread power outages. In the hardest-hit spots, prepare for lights to be out for days, not hours. Gusty winds of 25-40MPH Sunday night into Monday will not help anything!
Trees: Significant limb breakage and tree damage is possible in the highest ice.
Travel: It goes without saying travel will be a mess.
📌(0.20" – 0.40") This yesterday I expanded this to include more of the mountains and high country (parts are in the .40/.65" area now) upon reviewing data, which also extends into parts of Eastern NC, basically along I-95. The higher totals in this section will extend across the Piedmont and mountains. Not changes expected here. Still watching for more sleet to mix in. You will see hazardous travel and likely some scattered to even numerous power outages west in the Piedmont and mountains, where some wind is expected too, especially where totals lean toward the higher end of this range
The "Glaze" Zone: A light glaze is possible. While this will certainly cause slick spots and travel impacts, widespread power issues are generally not expected here, though isolated outages are always possible, but remain a low threat. This runs along parts of Eastern NC for Sunday morning generally. This will be just west of the coast, some impacts are possible Sunday morning early afternoon, before warming up.
-Some areas will see a couple of inches of sleet and some snow mixing in. We want areas to stay sleet as long as possible because sleet does not cause power outages.
😎Bottom Line: Our forecast remains on track for a significant to major winter storm beginning later today, with conditions deteriorating rapidly from west to east this evening (after sunset in the west, and 8–9 PM for Central NC). Hazardous travel is guaranteed, and there is a high risk of scattered to widespread power outages, some potentially long-lasting, especially from Raleigh westward, where the heaviest ice is expected. Now is the time to finalize your preparations, charge your devices, and have your emergency heat source ready before the storm arrives tonight. We will get through this together; stay safe! I'll pass along updates as needed.
-Ethan
thank you, Ethan, for providing your models and clear detailed assessments on the winter storm we had. i appreciated knowing the possible scenarios, and that there was no reason to panic. simply be prepared, and remain level headed and informed. i was able to make the appropriate preparations without giving in to the fear mongering i saw circulating the news. thank you for your rationale and steady updates! you gained a new follower with your coverage.
Any updates for sunday ?
Thank you for keeping us updated during all of this!