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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Storm Arthur forms will bring life-threatening flooding to the gulf coast and some moisture to NC.

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
Jun 17
2 min read

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the first Tropical Storm of the 2026 season about 30 miles ENE of Port Oconnor along the Texas Gulf Coastline. The remains of Arthur and an approaching cold front could bring some gusty winds and scattered rain/storm chances to North Carolina Thursday night into Friday. I'll have more on this post. There's far too much hype with this system; we will be just fine in the Carolinas. Tropical Storm Arthur is mainly a rainstorm with a name because it is a very sloppy system.


-Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.


-NC IMPACTS: There will be two factors in our forecast for the remainder of the week: a cold front approaching from the NW and the remnants of Arthur sliding by to our south. Thursday will be a hot and humid day with highs in the 90s and feeling like the low 100s, a little cooler in the mountains due to more clouds from the approaching systems. Thursday will be windy across the state with 20-35MPH wind gusts statewide due to the pressure differences and the approaching systems. High Fire Danger likely. Thursday late afternoon/evening, scattered showers and even some thunderstorms will move into the Western areas and push east overnight. Severe threat is very low, but some gusty winds are possible.

Friday scattered showers and even a thunderstorm will be move through the state through the morning hours into the early afternoon (east). Rainfall amounts don't look like much, but some local spots could pick up an inch (SW mountains) and maybe some east, but many will be quite disappointed in the rain amounts. Gusty winds are likely Friday, 25-35MPH inland with up to 45MPH+ along the coast, esp Friday morning. High Surf and Rip Currents are likely. It is all history by Friday night, I'll pass along updates like normal! No reason to worry here in NC!

 
 
 

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