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Tropical Storm Arthur forms will bring life-threatening flooding to the gulf coast and some moisture to NC.

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the first Tropical Storm of the 2026 season about 30 miles ENE of Port Oconnor along the Texas Gulf Coastline. The remains of Arthur and an approaching cold front could bring some gusty winds and scattered rain/storm chances to North Carolina Thursday night into Friday. I'll have more on this post. There's far too much hype with this system; we will be just fine in the Carolinas. Tropical Storm Arthur is mainly a rainstorm with a name because it is a very sloppy system.


-Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.


-NC IMPACTS: There will be two factors in our forecast for the remainder of the week: a cold front approaching from the NW and the remnants of Arthur sliding by to our south. Thursday will be a hot and humid day with highs in the 90s and feeling like the low 100s, a little cooler in the mountains due to more clouds from the approaching systems. Thursday will be windy across the state with 20-35MPH wind gusts statewide due to the pressure differences and the approaching systems. High Fire Danger likely. Thursday late afternoon/evening, scattered showers and even some thunderstorms will move into the Western areas and push east overnight. Severe threat is very low, but some gusty winds are possible.

Friday scattered showers and even a thunderstorm will be move through the state through the morning hours into the early afternoon (east). Rainfall amounts don't look like much, but some local spots could pick up an inch (SW mountains) and maybe some east, but many will be quite disappointed in the rain amounts. Gusty winds are likely Friday, 25-35MPH inland with up to 45MPH+ along the coast, esp Friday morning. High Surf and Rip Currents are likely. It is all history by Friday night, I'll pass along updates like normal! No reason to worry here in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

What Meteorologists are Looking For on Radar During Severe Weather

We've all experienced it - gathering around the TV as the broadcast meteorologist goes through a list of cities and towns in the path of a tornado-warned storm. But how do meteorologists know when to warn a storm? What are meteorologists looking for?


If you've ever driven past a National Weather Service office, there's likely one thing that stood out - a NEXRAD (Next-Generation Radar) doppler radar.


The NEXRAD Radar at Fort Fix in New Jersey
The NEXRAD Radar at Fort Fix in New Jersey

A Brief History of Weather Radar

Prior to the NEXRAD, the national radar network consisted of WSR-57 (developed in 1957) and WSR-74 (developed in 1974). While helpful at the time, the United States knew it needed an upgrade. Why? Because neither radar allowed meteorologists to see wind speed and wind direction, which is crucial for detecting rotation within storms.


What Makes NEXRAD Different?

NEXRAD came with a number of improvements, including Base Velocity (BV), which shows wind direction. Not only that but it also improved resolution and sensitivity and most importantly, an increased range.


Scientific American's graphic below shows exactly how doppler weather radar works:


So, back to our scenario - sitting in the living room, around the TV, watching the tornado-warned storm heading towards you. How do meteorologists know that there's rotation?


On a velocity radar scan (bottom left), colors represent wind motion:

  • Green shades = wind moving toward the radar

  • Red shades = wind moving away from the radar

When these two strong signals appear right next to each other, it indicates rotation within the storm. This is what meteorologists refer to as a velocity couplet, and it can be a strong sign that a tornado is forming—or already occurring.



Another critical radar product is Correlation Coefficient (CC) - the image on the right.

This tool helps meteorologists determine what types of objects are being picked up by the radar.

  • High values (reds/oranges/yellows): uniform precipitation like rain or hail

  • Lower values (blues/greens): mixed or non-uniform objects


When a distinct “drop” or pocket of low correlation appears inside a storm, it can indicate debris being lofted into the air—such as:

  • roofing material

  • siding

  • trees

  • or other ground-level debris


This is often referred to as a debris signature, and it can be strong evidence that a tornado is on the ground.


So do we always know when a tornado is on the ground? Not always. Radar gives meteorologists powerful clues, but it is not perfect. Some tornadoes are short-lived, rain-wrapped, or occur in areas where radar resolution is limited. However, when strong rotation and a debris signature appear together, confidence increases significantly that a tornado is ongoing.


The bottom line: if a Tornado Warning is issued, take cover immediately.


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