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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT NC SNOW LIKELY

Writer: ncwxauthority
ncwxauthority
Feb 19, 2020
2 min read

Well, snow lovers, the day is almost here, after looking over all model data today here's the newest update. Models started to get a better hang of the event; I have decided to keep the amounts the same with confidence. Snow lovers rejoice; we are on the verge of having a snow day; in fact, this is a Winter Storm. Widespread accumulating expected across parts of the state. The big winners will be across Central and North Eastern NC. This forecast map takes into account a variety of things; forecasting snow is not a slam dunk; it is a science and prediction. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory for a good portion of the state.


WHAT: A developing low pressure will bring widespread moisture-producing snow and sleet for a good portion of the state. Today the agreement among models still show a snow-event, I have adjusted some of snow and sleet totals on our new forecast map. I think we will see more sleet south of Raleigh mixing, many signs are suggesting that. This is very common for NC snowstorms. This forecast is based upon the trends short-range ensembles and long-range forecasts. This forecast still has a bust potential but is going down from yesterday. I have taken into account the ground temperatures!


FORECAST: Tonight we will be fine, the system arrives across the Mountains and Foothills in the morning and spread east throughout the day, the heaviest snow in the late afternoon and evening. Our job as forecasters is to bring you the best information we possibly have and that is what I have done.


STARTING WEST TO EAST:

(Southern Mountains) (Purple Area) Increased amounts to 3-5" mainly northwest of Ashville 2,000ft or higher

(Northern Mountains) (Blue) 2-4" with some impacts on roads ways.

Foothills (Pink area) (1-3") due to less moisture in this area fewer impacts, but still some on roads and elevated surfaces.

Greensboro-Raleigh (2-4") Totals have stayed the same here all day 2-4" on elevated surfaces and some roads. Locally higher amounts in heavier bands.

Northeast of Raleigh (3-5") looks to be big winners, 3-5" of snow possible with impacts on roads and elevated/grassy surfaces.

South of Raleigh-Charlotte to Duplin/Sampson County Fayetteville and New Bern/Jacksonville 1-3" with sleet mixing likely. Lower impacts, but still some.

Winter Weather Impact Map: It is becoming clear that we will see impacts from snow and sleet starting Thursday after lunch through Friday.

(RED AREA) High Impact Winter Storm expected this means travel will become hazardous after sunset on Thursday, travel will not be recommended. A Flash Freeze will also be possible Thursday night into Friday. Isolated power outages will also be possible here.

(ORANGE AREA) Moderate Impact Winter Storm expected this means travel will become hazardous on some untreated roads after sunset on Thursday.

  1. Note: We are not all going to be stranded snow should quickly melt on Friday and especially by Saturday.

TIMING:

-Thursday morning Mountains and Foothills

Thursday Lunchtime snow starts Triad and Charlotte

Thursday afternoon Central and Eastern

Snow ends early Friday morning.

Stay Tuned for updates!


 
 
 

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