Mountains

Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.

A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.

The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.

-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT NC SNOW LIKELY

ncwxauthority
Feb 19, 2020
2 min read

Well, snow lovers, the day is almost here, after looking over all model data today here's the newest update. Models started to get a better hang of the event; I have decided to keep the amounts the same with confidence. Snow lovers rejoice; we are on the verge of having a snow day; in fact, this is a Winter Storm. Widespread accumulating expected across parts of the state. The big winners will be across Central and North Eastern NC. This forecast map takes into account a variety of things; forecasting snow is not a slam dunk; it is a science and prediction. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory for a good portion of the state.

WHAT: A developing low pressure will bring widespread moisture-producing snow and sleet for a good portion of the state. Today the agreement among models still show a snow-event, I have adjusted some of snow and sleet totals on our new forecast map. I think we will see more sleet south of Raleigh mixing, many signs are suggesting that. This is very common for NC snowstorms. This forecast is based upon the trends short-range ensembles and long-range forecasts. This forecast still has a bust potential but is going down from yesterday. I have taken into account the ground temperatures!

FORECAST: Tonight we will be fine, the system arrives across the Mountains and Foothills in the morning and spread east throughout the day, the heaviest snow in the late afternoon and evening. Our job as forecasters is to bring you the best information we possibly have and that is what I have done.

STARTING WEST TO EAST:

(Southern Mountains) (Purple Area) Increased amounts to 3-5" mainly northwest of Ashville 2,000ft or higher

(Northern Mountains) (Blue) 2-4" with some impacts on roads ways.

Foothills (Pink area) (1-3") due to less moisture in this area fewer impacts, but still some on roads and elevated surfaces.

Greensboro-Raleigh (2-4") Totals have stayed the same here all day 2-4" on elevated surfaces and some roads. Locally higher amounts in heavier bands.

Northeast of Raleigh (3-5") looks to be big winners, 3-5" of snow possible with impacts on roads and elevated/grassy surfaces.

South of Raleigh-Charlotte to Duplin/Sampson County Fayetteville and New Bern/Jacksonville 1-3" with sleet mixing likely. Lower impacts, but still some.

Winter Weather Impact Map: It is becoming clear that we will see impacts from snow and sleet starting Thursday after lunch through Friday.

(RED AREA) High Impact Winter Storm expected this means travel will become hazardous after sunset on Thursday, travel will not be recommended. A Flash Freeze will also be possible Thursday night into Friday. Isolated power outages will also be possible here.

(ORANGE AREA) Moderate Impact Winter Storm expected this means travel will become hazardous on some untreated roads after sunset on Thursday.