Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Wednesday, June 1st Tropical Update; Tropical Depression likely to develop in the Gulf soon

ncwxauthority

Jun 1, 2022

1 min read

Today is the first day of Hurricane Season and we're off to a quick start, on Wednesday evening The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This low-pressure area is part of the remains of Hurricane Agatha from the Pacific Ocean. I expect this system to move into the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so, where the National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance of development. It will continue to move north and east towards South Florida as a Tropical Depression of Storm; the overall steering pattern takes it towards Florida regardless of development. I expect heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and Flash Flooding in parts of Florida be aware if you're there or traveling there. Right now, it does not appear it will be a Hurricane; the conditions are not that favorable due to high shear. After Florida, the system will move east into the Atlantic Ocean, and it will likely be picked up by a front that will keep it away from NC. It is a low threat as of now to NC for direct impacts, but some indirect effects of High Surf and Rip Currents are likely this weekend into next week. As I've done for the past 6 years, I'll watch the system until it is north of NC or no longer there, but for now, I am not worried about it directly hitting us; no models show that.