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Watching the tropics
- Ethan Clark
- Jul 3, 2025
- 2 min read
🌀 Tropical Update: The odds of a tropical system gradually developing into a Tropical Depression or Storm off the Southeast United States Coastline over the next 3-7 days have increased to 60%, according to the National Hurricane Center. Looking over the data, I also agree with the consensus. Y'all know I'm not going to leave you hanging, which is why I'm continuing to provide updates on this. First, there is no reason to panic if you get anything from this. So, Ethan should I cancel my plans to the coast? Will the weather be bad? No No, the weather will be very typical summer weather for most of the holiday weekend. I'll explain below.
👌The system should generally remain weak if it develops into anything. The cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms to part of the state yesterday and today will stall off the SE US Coastline on today and Friday. There are areas of spin that could allow for a low-pressure area to develop along the stalled cold front later this weekend and into early next week. Conditions could become marginally conducive for some slow tropical development, and a weak depression or storm could develop late this weekend into early next week.
📌Models have continued to shift, and all of them now indicate that if anything forms, it'll be in the Atlantic Ocean off the southeastern coastline of GA, SC, and NC, somewhere in that area, and not in the Gulf.
😎NC IMPACTS: The good news is that most models keep the deep tropical moisture offshore and in the ocean for most of the holiday weekend. Friday is looking great at this point across NC highs in the 80s and 90s, with only a stray storm. Saturday, a couple of scattered storms can't be ruled out, especially along the coast. Sunday into Monday could become more unsettled, especially along the coast, if this system attempts to make a run at the coast, as some models indicate. Daily storm chances will increase a good amount on Sunday, but it still doesn’t look like a washout Sunday either. At this point, it appears that it could simply be a rainmaker along the coast from Sunday into Monday, which is much needed anyway. There could be some brief gusty winds in spots, depending on how deep it gets. Nothing suggests it'll become a Hurricane or even a strong Tropical Storm; atmospheric conditions are not favorable.
✔️So you can go ahead with your holiday plans, regardless of where you are; however, if you're along the coast, you won't be able to escape the whole weekend dry at this point. However, no day currently looks like a washout. Sunday could be a more active day, though. We will need to watch for increased Rip Currents and potentially surf, especially on the late weekend.
🌊As always, I'll continue to keep a close eye on the trends and keep you updated as things change. I am sure things will change; that is just how it goes with tropical systems in general.
-Ethan
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