Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

WARMING TREND; THEN PATTERN CHANGE COMING

ncwxauthority

Dec 24, 2018

2 min read

It has been an extremely long year regarding weather here in NC, as we head into the Holidays I would like to say thank you for supporting us each and every day! Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!

A large area of high pressure will provide dry weather with good travel conditions for today, Christmas Day tomorrow and on into Wednesday and Thursday as well. Daily high temperatures across North Carolina will be mostly in the 50s and 40s for these four days with nighttime lows a few degrees either side of the freezing mark.

CHRISTMAS FORECAST: "Santa" should have no problem getting to NC this year Christmas Eve Mostly sunny and a little cooler. Highs in the lower-mid 50s. It will be a cool & dry day for any activities and events happening.

Christmas Day: Merry Christmas! It will be a chilly start with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s at sunrise. It will be a great morning to warm up with some hot chocolate or hot apple cider! Today will be a seasonable winter day with highs in the upper 40s-low 50s and passing clouds. Great day for any activities you have inside or outside, our testing out those new Christmas gifts!

WARM UP: Starting Thursday winds will switch out of the south, ahead of an approaching storm system temperatures Thursday will be in the 60s and sunny. Conditions will change in a hurry Thursday night as warm moist air moves into the state, highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s and YES low 70s.

This moist unstable air will bring rain to North Carolina late Thursday night through Friday. Some of this rain can be heavy.

The southward-trailing cold front will reach central NC late Friday or Friday evening. Very warm air flowing ahead of this front could lead to a more unstable atmosphere Friday afternoon. This could support the development of locally heavy thunderstorms into Friday evening, severe weather could be possible Friday stay tuned for more updates

Forecasted High temps on Friday!

A look at the storm system expected to move in Friday.

PATTERN CHANGE

Right now we are in a pattern where are storms “cut” northward of the state leading to the warm side. The storm systems pass over NC or even to our west putting our area on the warm side of them. This is why the last couple of days were wet and warm and the end of the week.

The good news is that this pattern will not last much longer! Models are hinting at a pattern change into the first week of January that looks much colder and snowier for the East Coast.

There are no imminent threats right now but the pattern into January looks extremely good for snow and cold in our area, that could change quickly though so stay tuned.

More updates regarding the pattern change latter this week, until then Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Thank You for the support as always!!