Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

High Fire Danger Remains! Little to no rain expected for the foreseeable future.

Ethan Clark
Apr 15
1 min read

🔥 I sound like a broken record, but it seems people are just assuming that there is no wildfire risk based on the messages I am getting. There remains a very high risk of wildfires, and will be for the foreseeable future, some days higher then others, but the common theme is things are dry and the drought is getting worse there is really no significant rainfall expected over the next 7-10 days and even beyond that things are not very set in stone that storms and rain chances come back! This is insane. Of the 554 wildfires that have burned since the burn ban took effect, only four have been determined to be the result of lightning strikes. The rest have been human-caused.

Most of the state is over 10 inches below normal, so we need a good amount of rain to catch up! High wildfire conditions are expected to continue today and persist until further notice, driven by extremely dry vegetation, low humidity, and at times gusty winds.

Tips: 🚒

Always dispose of cigarettes, matches, and other flammables properly. Be extremely careful when operating any machinery or equipment that could generate sparks. Avoid driving or parking vehicles over dry grass or leaves, as hot exhaust systems can ignite them.

I'll continue to post about as many new fires as show up, but now is a good time to use the community I've built, so please share anything you hear with me about new fires!

-Ethan