Mountains

Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.

A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.

The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.

-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update: Tropical Development Possible off the NC coast this weekend into early next week, it could impact NC.

ncwxauthority
Sep 13, 2024
2 min read

🌀Tropical Update: The ever-evolving forecast at least it keeps the weather forecasting fun. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the North Carolina coastline, and it could develop into a tropical system late this weekend into early next week and move into North Carolina. Named or not, I think we'll see periods of rain, some heavy at times, Monday-Wednesday across parts of Central and Eastern, which could result in Flash Flooding. The system is being watched solely by models, and this is a homegrown thing, so we'll have to watch it play-by-play as one would say. No models show the system getting really strong, but a weak Tropical Storm can't be ruled out. Rain with some wind would be the theme; several inches of rain is possible early next week. I know people are going to ask about Tornadoes, it is too soon to know about that threat but I'll be monitoring and updating you through the weekend. No concerns about that this weekend. Coastal Flood, there could be some coastal flooding due to the King Tides along the coast Sunday-Wednesday, so watch out for some higher-than-usual tides. If you have plans along the coast for the next few days, you'll be fine, but plan for rain at times and maybe some gusty winds.

This weekend, we will see some scattered showers on and off along the coast and some inland, not directly related to this low pressure. If you're heading, be aware of high surf and high rip currents.

The Bottom Line: A low-pressure system could develop off the coast late weekend and move inland early next week, potentially a weak tropical storm. Be aware of some heavy rain possible from this and gusty winds across Central and Eastern NC. It won't be a huge deal, but it is something to keep an eye on over the weekend. I'll be watching trends and post updates; no, we're not getting a hurricane or anything strong; basically, a rain event is the main thing, with the potential of some gusty winds and coastal flooding, too. I'll keep you updated like I always do.

-Ethan