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North Carolina will see some indirect impacts from Hurricane Isaias

Ethan Clark

October 8, 2026 at 11:50:44 AM

🌀 Hurricane Isaias Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I know you've been waiting for this; here's my forecast update on Isaias's indirect impacts on North Carolina this weekend. The positives: This is NOT a repeat of Helene by any means at all, so please don't think that! The weekend isn't a total washout; there will be dry time, and the storm is moving fast enough to clear out pretty quickly. The world is not ending here in NC, and we will be just fine. Don't stress. Isaias became a Hurricane overnight and will keep strengthening until landfall, and it will make landfall along the Florida/Alabama-Mississippi coast on Friday evening; significant impacts are likely in these areas. This update will cover impacts in NC, though. Even though Isaias's center will go into Tennessee and not impact NC directly, we will get indirect impacts from the outer bands and the surrounding front.

📌Here's how I think it'll play out:


RAIN: Scattered to isolated showers will be around across the state Saturday morning, and but there will be breaks and dry time for sure Saturday morning into the afternoon; coverage looks pretty hit or miss. Saturday afternoon and evening rain chances ramp up, especially west and along the coast, it seems; some rain could be heavy at times by the time the evening and overnight rolls along. Sunday morning rain will be around hit or miss throughout the state, and start clearing out Sunday PM/evening. The race in Charlotte is trending drier btw.



Amounts Image 2: Rainfall through Sunday PM, we will see generally 1-2 inches along the high mountains, and in Central and Northern NC. At this point, we're not expecting much flooding; we would only see some if a storm trains over the same area. Most of these areas desperately need the rain. 2-4 inches in the orange-area parts of the mountians/foothills and then coastal areas. Along the coast, the front could enhance rain at times, so we could see some bursts of heavy rainfall. Across the Foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment, we could see some localized flooding in flood-prone areas if heavier rain sets up, so we will watch it. The rainfall forecast is still fluid, and with any tropical system can change, so stay tuned and don't take it literally this is using my best knowledge of the setup and models to make this.


Wind: Winds will really not be a concern but some gusty winds of 20-35MPH are possible with up to 45MPH in the mountians, maybe a couple of isolated outages in the mountians but I am really not concerned about this.


Tornado Threat: Given that NC is on the right side of the storm, and high wind shear is around, especially late Saturday into Sunday, we could see a low-end tornado threat develop in parts of Eastern/Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday, but the threat is fluid and not a certainty right now. So, stay tuned; overall, it looks pretty low. I'm watching, of course.


😎The Bottom Line: The world is not ending; we will be just fine. Minimal overall impact: This system is moving fast and isn't a repeat of Helene; the weekend won't be a washout and will feature plenty of dry time, including a trending-dry race in Charlotte. Rainfall: Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and northern areas, and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, foothills, and coast, bringing mostly beneficial moisture but a localized risk of flooding in vulnerable spots. Minor Wind & Low Tornado Risk: Sustained winds and gusts (20–35 MPH, up to 45 MPH in the mountains) are mostly a minor nuisance, though a low-end, highly fluid tornado threat will be monitored across Eastern and Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned on that. This is the forecast as I see it now, but remember it is a science and things can and will change, so I'll do my best to keep you posted!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Update, odds of a new tropical storm forming are increasing

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
Jun 27, 2024
2 min read

🌀 Tropical Update: I have been inundated with questions regarding the tropics, so here are my newest thoughts. On Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring two areas for tropical development. Invest 94L, located in the Western Caribbean Sea, has a low chance of development over the next 7 days I am not going to really talk about this system.




Invest 95L, has a high chance 80% of development over the next 7 days. All interest has been on this Cabo Verde system, a tropical wave located several hundred miles west southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands; it is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but some organization is ongoing, and this system is likely to become a Tropical Storm this weekend as it approaches the Windward Islands. Folks with interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system; some models bring it to hurricane status early next week.


Models are pretty aggressive in developing this wave. First, it is rather unusual to already see Tropical waves this early in June. The Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean runs from Africa to the Caribbean Islands and is an area where the majority of tropical cyclones form. This area is notorious for producing major hurricanes; Hurricane Fran, Floyd, Florence, Hazel, Hugo, Irene, and many more all came from this area.


The system will slowly move into the Caribbean Sea next week. Conditions are usually pretty unfavorable for Hurricanes across what is known as the graveyard of the Caribbean Sea this time of year. What happens beyond 5-7 days remains to be seen. Most models take it deep into the Caribbean Sea before taking it either south towards Mexico or the Gulf of Mexico or maybe turning it north. It is way too soon to speculate on any potential US Mainland impacts; if any, this system could very well fall apart or never ever get close; as you can see in image two, it takes over 10-12 days to reach the US mainland from where this system is located right now.


As of now, models show a strong ridge of High Pressure that would ideally keep this system away from NC, but we can't write it off 10 days away when the system has not even developed, and we don't have recon data yet. Nothing to worry about here in NC right now; if you have plans that take you into the Caribbean, you should follow the progress of this system closely. I'll keep you updated like normal, but no reason to panic, and please don't fall for hype. Technology has not come far enough to tell us where a Hurricane will go in 10 days.


-Ethan

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