⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.
A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.
The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.
-Ethan
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