Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL BRING IMPACTS TO NC; NOT THE END OF THE WORLD THOUGH

ncwxauthority
Aug 2, 2020
4 min read

Impacts likely across portions of North Carolina due to Tropical Storm Isaias, prepare for moderate impacts from Raleigh east, greatest impacts across southeastern NC. Share to friends and family who might find this helpful.

Overnight a Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch was posted for Brunswick, Bladen, Columbus, Pender, New Hanover, Robeson, Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, and Sampson. Storm Surge Watch for Brunswick. Additional watches might be needed later today. Another year another Tropical Storm or Hurricane for NC. I think we're a magnet. Don't panic; this storm will be okay; we have seen way worse Dorian etc. Think a Severe Storm moving over for a few hours. The watch has now been expanded from Raleigh north and east with a Warning across Southeastern NC.

Isaias is a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65MPH, little change in strength is expected over the next 48 hours. I can't rule out the storm restrengthen to Hurricane force, and that really does not change our impacts. Remember, it is always good to prepare for a category higher, so prepare for a Cat 1, so there are no surprises; this mainly applies to the southern coast. Isaias is expected to make landfall between Georgetown South Carolina and the North Carolina/South Carolina line Monday night.

Timing: The main impact timing from south to north will spread across the south late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning with the strongest impacts between 9PM and 9AM Tuesday. Further north impacts will be late Monday night through a portion of the day on Tuesday.

What will it be like? Think of a severe storm thunderstorm moving through this is the best way to explain the wind impacts mainly east of Raleigh to the coast. Everyone else just has to worry about heavy rainfall.

IMPACTS: Based on the Current forecast track, here is a break down of impacts across the state.

WINDS: Winds will be gusty 20-30 MPH along the southern coast during the day on Monday with the greatest winds along the southern part of the state overnight Monday. Winds will gust 50-65 MPH in Red with the highest amounts along the beaches and coast. Impacts the winds will be caple of causing some minor damage along the beaches and portions inland. Mainly from down trees and power lines, the great chance for power outages is across Southerneast NC. Inland In the green winds could gust 25-35 MPH during the night on Monday really nothing to worry about here just a breezy evening. Raleigh and Fayetteville east, orange area winds will gust 30-45 MPH just think a wind advisory a few trees might fall and a few power outages. The final stop along the Outer Banks, really nothing major 45-55 MPH a few power outages possible. Think a Nor'ester the Outer Banks will be fine.

WIND IMPACTS: This is manily for areas seeing gusts to 50MPH or higher. Some damage to roofing and siding, along with damage to porches and awnings. A few buildings experiencing window,cing window, door, and garage door failures. Damage to vulnerable structures such as carports, sheds and mobile homes isis possible. - Large limbs will be down with several trees snapped or uprooted. Several fences and roadway signs may become blownblown over. Some roads may become impassable due to large debris blocking the roadway, especially within urban or heavily wooded locations. Some bridges, causeways, and elevated roads may be impacted by high winds making driving on them hazardous. - Scattered power and communications outages are possible but more prevalent in areas with above-ground lines. - Small craft that are not properly moored may break loose.

RAIN: Rain will spread from south to north during the afternoon on Monday with the heaviest rain on Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall 2-4" with up to 3-6 from the southern coast to Central North Carolina. A few areas of Flash Flooding possible, think places that flood first that where it will flood. This is highly track dependent, so if the track wobbles a little bit, than the rain will—all other areas across the state 1-2" with maybe 2-3" to the east. Compared to past storms this will be nothing major, I'll have an update on any river concerns later.

TORNADO: There's a risk for an isolated Tornado or two from Brunswick County to the north and east anyone east of the center has a risk. I'll have more on that as we get closer, depending on the track. Timing would be overnight Monday.

Storm Surge Warning: A Storm Surge Warning has been posted from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear Inlet for Brunswick County. Sunset Beach, Ocean Isle, Holden Beach, Oak Island, Bald Head Island. Storm Surge of 2-4 ft likely along the coast. High tide Monday night is also a king tide so that will be the greatest concern. A Storm of this will be lower than what we had during Matthew.

- Areas of storm surge inundation enhanced by breaking waves are possible along the barrier islands. Damage to several buildings is possible, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore roads may become weakened or washed out, especially in vulnerable low-lying areas. - Delivery of drinking water and sewer services may be interrupted. - Major beach erosion is possible with heavy surf and elevated water levels impacting or breaching the dunes.nes. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft will break away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages. - Navigation may be difficult near inlets and waterways, as navigational aids may be off station or missing.