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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Severe Weather Update Thursday afternoon.

⛈️ Afternoon Storm Update: As we approach the noon hour, I am continuing to monitor the progression of our weather today. Based on the latest observational updates, I continue to see the risk of isolated strong to severe storms basically from Raleigh and Fayetteville west to about Hickory or so this afternoon in the red-circled area on the map below. 




If atmospheric conditions improve this afternoon, we could experience strong to severe storms in the red-circled area, with the primary threat being damaging winds. However, there is also a possibility of an isolated tornado threat. The greatest threat for any severe weather is in the red area circled below. The main threat would be damaging winds, but I can’t rule out an isolated tornado threat. Unfortunately, this setup is more of a wait-and-see if it happens. If you live in the area circled, I would stay weather aware mainly from about 4PM-10PM this afternoon and evening; there is no reason to panic. 


Elsewhere across the state, rain this morning along the coast should limit any severe weather threat, but an isolated strong storm east of the red-circled area can’t be ruled out as mainly a damaging winds threat. 

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