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Mountains

Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.


A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.




The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.


-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Periods of Rain: Isolated Severe Storm Possible Saturday March 9th

Saturday's Weather Update: Good evening. Here are my thoughts on the forecast for Saturday. A low-pressure system will move through the state late tonight into Saturday. It'll bring periods of rain to most of the state. I expect the greatest period of rain to be from 2AM-11AM for most of the state, longer along the coast and parts of Eastern NC. The bulk of the rain will move through the morning hours and clearing out through the afternoon. Upwards of 1 inch is possible in spots for Central and Western NC, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible across Eastern NC and especially Southeastern NC.


Severe Weather Threat? There is no severe weather threat Saturday morning; once the main batch of rain moves through, if the atmosphere is able to recover, a few isolated storms could be strong to severe, mainly south and east of Raleigh. Overall, I don't see too much to the severe weather threat. If we see some clearing across the coast and eastern NC, we could see a strong to severe storm develop, but I think extensive cloud coverage will limit any severe weather threat. If a storm does become severe, it could have a damage winds threat. I can't completely rule out an isolated tornado, but that threat appears greatest in South Carolina.



The timing for any strong to maybe severe storms will be from 1-5PM Saturday afternoon, and in the circled above on the map below in white would be where it is. The Bottom Line is the severe weather that is rather low, and I don't expect much, mainly a rain event, but I'll monitor the trends in the morning and pass along any changes.



-Coastal flooding is possible along the coast this weekend due to high tides caused by King Tides.

Much nicer/warmer and quieter weather is expected Sunday into next week.

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