Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Periods of Rain: Isolated Severe Storm Possible Saturday March 9th

Ethan Clark
Mar 8, 2024
2 min read

Saturday's Weather Update: Good evening. Here are my thoughts on the forecast for Saturday. A low-pressure system will move through the state late tonight into Saturday. It'll bring periods of rain to most of the state. I expect the greatest period of rain to be from 2AM-11AM for most of the state, longer along the coast and parts of Eastern NC. The bulk of the rain will move through the morning hours and clearing out through the afternoon. Upwards of 1 inch is possible in spots for Central and Western NC, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible across Eastern NC and especially Southeastern NC.

Severe Weather Threat? There is no severe weather threat Saturday morning; once the main batch of rain moves through, if the atmosphere is able to recover, a few isolated storms could be strong to severe, mainly south and east of Raleigh. Overall, I don't see too much to the severe weather threat. If we see some clearing across the coast and eastern NC, we could see a strong to severe storm develop, but I think extensive cloud coverage will limit any severe weather threat. If a storm does become severe, it could have a damage winds threat. I can't completely rule out an isolated tornado, but that threat appears greatest in South Carolina.

The timing for any strong to maybe severe storms will be from 1-5PM Saturday afternoon, and in the circled above on the map below in white would be where it is. The Bottom Line is the severe weather that is rather low, and I don't expect much, mainly a rain event, but I'll monitor the trends in the morning and pass along any changes.

-Coastal flooding is possible along the coast this weekend due to high tides caused by King Tides.

Much nicer/warmer and quieter weather is expected Sunday into next week.