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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Storm Fiona develops overnight nothing to panic about at this time.

Tropical Update: All anyone is worried about is Tropical Storm Fiona, which developed overnight. Come on, folks; it is over 1,000 miles away from North Carolina; relax; let's just enjoy the nice weather. Here are my thoughts, as usually I am laid back, and there is no reason to hype anything up. I don't know what stuff people are looking at, but I had messages this morning asking if they should board up their homes. I am not trying to get views or anything; just here to state the information we have and explain the models. Tropical Storm Fiona developed overnight; it has winds of 50mph and is moving west at 14MPH. The system is battling a lot of wind shear, and I think it will weaken some in the short term. The National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla Saba and St. Eustatius St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin additional watches might be needed for Puerto Rico and the DR.

Beyond 4 days the track is very complicated; models range from taking the system north and east out to sea to into the Gulf or near the southeast United States. What will decide the future track would be how strong the system is near the Bahamas; a stronger system would like to curve out to sea a weaker one would not get picked up by the ridge of high pressure and stay closer to land. At this time, it is too soon to know where the system will go beyond 5 day, but morning models are trending out to sea; but there's a lot of ?? but for now, I don't see anything to say if it will hit NC or not odds favor no right now. As always, I'll monitor the system until it is history, and you should, too it is Hurricane season; that's how we roll. Models change every 6 hours. As we get more data, we should have a clearer picture. I'll keep you posted, but no reason to panic right now and stay away from hype posts that show the end of the world. Below is the official forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center as of 11AM.




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