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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Depression 9 forms could impact the United States down the road.

Tropical Update: Well, here we go again, I guess. The long talked about Invest 98L is now Tropical Depression 9 as of 5 AM this morning, the National Hurricane Center officially declared it a Tropical Depression. Now, we have an official cone from the National Hurricane; they forecast it to be a Tropical Storm tomorrow; the next name on the list is Hermine. The system should move towards the Western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and then into the Gulf of Mexico. The early thinking is that though uncertainty is high, the system is currently forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 Hurricane approaching Cat 3 status. Interests along the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern United States should monitor the progress of the storm, especially on Florida's west coast. Beyond 3-4 days, the range of uncertainty is high, and models range over 700-1,000 miles in differences. So even in Florida, the uncertainty is still high, but if you are watching from FL or have friends/family make sure they know and stay alert through the weekend.



NC Impacts? The uncertainty beyond 3-4 days is way too high to say what we think for us. Could we see a storm? Yes, we could! Could the storm recurve out to sea after Florida? Yes, it could, or it could ride up the coast. We have decent odds of seeing a storm and decent odds of seeing nothing. No one knows right now, and I don't care what people think they know. No one has a clue where this system will go beyond 3-4 days. There are a lot of factors that will need to be figured out by models are forecasters next week. For now, let's enjoy this stunning fall weather. While also at least keeping an eye on this system, I'll have daily updates until it is gone, and sometimes more than one a day. However, don't fall for hype or scary models that seem false; I'll keep you posted as I've had for the past 6 years.

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