top of page

​

North Carolina will see some indirect impacts from Hurricane Isaias

Ethan Clark

October 8, 2026 at 11:50:44 AM

🌀 Hurricane Isaias Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I know you've been waiting for this; here's my forecast update on Isaias's indirect impacts on North Carolina this weekend. The positives: This is NOT a repeat of Helene by any means at all, so please don't think that! The weekend isn't a total washout; there will be dry time, and the storm is moving fast enough to clear out pretty quickly. The world is not ending here in NC, and we will be just fine. Don't stress. Isaias became a Hurricane overnight and will keep strengthening until landfall, and it will make landfall along the Florida/Alabama-Mississippi coast on Friday evening; significant impacts are likely in these areas. This update will cover impacts in NC, though. Even though Isaias's center will go into Tennessee and not impact NC directly, we will get indirect impacts from the outer bands and the surrounding front.

📌Here's how I think it'll play out:


RAIN: Scattered to isolated showers will be around across the state Saturday morning, and but there will be breaks and dry time for sure Saturday morning into the afternoon; coverage looks pretty hit or miss. Saturday afternoon and evening rain chances ramp up, especially west and along the coast, it seems; some rain could be heavy at times by the time the evening and overnight rolls along. Sunday morning rain will be around hit or miss throughout the state, and start clearing out Sunday PM/evening. The race in Charlotte is trending drier btw.



Amounts Image 2: Rainfall through Sunday PM, we will see generally 1-2 inches along the high mountains, and in Central and Northern NC. At this point, we're not expecting much flooding; we would only see some if a storm trains over the same area. Most of these areas desperately need the rain. 2-4 inches in the orange-area parts of the mountians/foothills and then coastal areas. Along the coast, the front could enhance rain at times, so we could see some bursts of heavy rainfall. Across the Foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment, we could see some localized flooding in flood-prone areas if heavier rain sets up, so we will watch it. The rainfall forecast is still fluid, and with any tropical system can change, so stay tuned and don't take it literally this is using my best knowledge of the setup and models to make this.


Wind: Winds will really not be a concern but some gusty winds of 20-35MPH are possible with up to 45MPH in the mountians, maybe a couple of isolated outages in the mountians but I am really not concerned about this.


Tornado Threat: Given that NC is on the right side of the storm, and high wind shear is around, especially late Saturday into Sunday, we could see a low-end tornado threat develop in parts of Eastern/Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday, but the threat is fluid and not a certainty right now. So, stay tuned; overall, it looks pretty low. I'm watching, of course.


😎The Bottom Line: The world is not ending; we will be just fine. Minimal overall impact: This system is moving fast and isn't a repeat of Helene; the weekend won't be a washout and will feature plenty of dry time, including a trending-dry race in Charlotte. Rainfall: Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and northern areas, and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, foothills, and coast, bringing mostly beneficial moisture but a localized risk of flooding in vulnerable spots. Minor Wind & Low Tornado Risk: Sustained winds and gusts (20–35 MPH, up to 45 MPH in the mountains) are mostly a minor nuisance, though a low-end, highly fluid tornado threat will be monitored across Eastern and Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned on that. This is the forecast as I see it now, but remember it is a science and things can and will change, so I'll do my best to keep you posted!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Tropical Depression 9 forms could impact the United States down the road.

Writer: Ethan Clark
Ethan Clark
Sep 23, 2022
2 min read

Tropical Update: Well, here we go again, I guess. The long talked about Invest 98L is now Tropical Depression 9 as of 5 AM this morning, the National Hurricane Center officially declared it a Tropical Depression. Now, we have an official cone from the National Hurricane; they forecast it to be a Tropical Storm tomorrow; the next name on the list is Hermine. The system should move towards the Western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and then into the Gulf of Mexico. The early thinking is that though uncertainty is high, the system is currently forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 Hurricane approaching Cat 3 status. Interests along the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern United States should monitor the progress of the storm, especially on Florida's west coast. Beyond 3-4 days, the range of uncertainty is high, and models range over 700-1,000 miles in differences. So even in Florida, the uncertainty is still high, but if you are watching from FL or have friends/family make sure they know and stay alert through the weekend.



NC Impacts? The uncertainty beyond 3-4 days is way too high to say what we think for us. Could we see a storm? Yes, we could! Could the storm recurve out to sea after Florida? Yes, it could, or it could ride up the coast. We have decent odds of seeing a storm and decent odds of seeing nothing. No one knows right now, and I don't care what people think they know. No one has a clue where this system will go beyond 3-4 days. There are a lot of factors that will need to be figured out by models are forecasters next week. For now, let's enjoy this stunning fall weather. While also at least keeping an eye on this system, I'll have daily updates until it is gone, and sometimes more than one a day. However, don't fall for hype or scary models that seem false; I'll keep you posted as I've had for the past 6 years.

Comments

Don't Miss a Forecast

Subscribe to emails so you don't miss a thing!

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram

Thanks for subscribing!

bottom of page