top of page

Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

TRACKING WILDFIRES ACROSS NC AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NC WILDFIRES UPDATE: Good afternoon ll, I've spent some time collecting data about the 5 major fires ongoing across Western North Carolina this morning. This does not include every fire, but includes the ones that are major and have evacuation orders with most of them. The fire risk today remains very high, and these fires could rapidly increase, so please follow the advice from local fire officials on the ground in these areas. I have broken down each fire below, including the ongoing evacuations that I know of.



Table Rock Fire (Image 1): This fire started in Table Rock, South Carolina, but has continued to grow rapidly. It is now 10,700 acres and 0% contained as of 10AM on 3/28/2025. The fire is spreading in and near Transylvania County; the fire risk remains very high today.

TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY NC roads under evacuation:

Big Hill Community

Lake Honda Community

Happy Acres Community

Between the Lakes Rd

Burgess Gap Rd

Busted Rock Rd

Compass Rose Rd

Cougar Trail

Dolly Masters Road

Glady Fork Road

Gum Gap Access Road

Jane's Lane

Mary Fraser Way

Old Chimney Ln

Prayer Mountain Rd

State Line Rd

Turkey Mountain Rd

Walker Creek Dr


Black Cove Fire Polk/Henderson County NC: This fire has been ongoing since 3/19 and is now 3,300 acres as of 10AM 3/28/2025. Some containment has been made, and 17% is contained. The fire is spreading just north of Saluda NC. Some homes have been destroyed.


Mandatory Evacuations:

1091 - 1528 Green River Cove Rd

Big Hungry Rd

Deer Trl

English Heifer Cove Rd

Lady Slipper Trl

Scarlets Mountain Rd

Spurgeon Cove Ln


Deep Woods Fire (Polk County) This fire is spreading near the Black Cove Fire. It started on 3/20, and the fire crew have made some progress, but it is up to 3,400 acres and is 30% contained. The fire risk remains high. Some homes have been destroyed.


Mandatory Evacuations:

2456 - 7265 Holbert Cove Rd

Charity Branch Dr

Coyote Ridge Ln

Cozy Cove Ln

Deep Woods Ln

Echo Ln

Fox Paw Ln

Gamelands Trl

Glen Echo Cir

Moonshine Trc

Oakview Ln

Piney Gate Rd

Piney Overlook Ln

Sam's Gap Ln

Scout Camp Rd

Wesley Ln

Who Dr

Windsong Ln

Volley Way


Rattlesnake Branch Fire Haywood County: This fire started on 3/26 near the small town of Cruso and is now up to 630 acres and it 5% contained, but there are not any homes under evacuation orders right now.


Information from the US Forest Service and Haywood County Emergency Management

"Initially igniting on private land in Haywood County, the fire has continued to spread into both state- and federally managed public lands, including the Shining Rock Designated Wilderness Area on the Pisgah National Forest. These areas include hardwood forests impacted by Hurricane Helene.

Closures and Restrictions: Shining Rock Wilderness Area is closed due to the spread of the Rattlesnake Branch Fire. This closure includes all National Forest System land between US-276 and NC-215 north of the Blue Ridge Parkway (between mile markers 405 and 420). Visitor and employee safety are the highest priorities for the Forest Service, so the public should stay out of this area while federal, state and local fire crews work to contain the blaze. "


Alarka Fire, Swain County: The fire started on 3.25, is up to about 1000 acres, and is 10% contained.


Information from Swain County Emergency Managment:

"An estimated 20 homes have been evacuated, though the specific number is still being verified. The Alarka Fire is advancing toward Frye Mountain, Shepard’s Creek, and Conley’s Creek. One structure and one camper have been damaged. Evacuations are in effect for Long Creek, Alarka Highlands, and Unahala Creek. Crews from multiple local, state, federal, and tribal agencies are working together around the clock to protect lives, property, and natural resources.


🚧 Closures / Evacuations / Safety Notices:

Evacuations are currently in effect ONLY for the following areas:

Long Creek

Alarka Highlands

Unahala Creek"


The wildfire risk today remains high, and this data is subject to change quickly. However, this is the information I have found about these fires as of 10AM. Please be safe and DO NOT BURN. I hope this helps people understand the danger. These fires are all burning in areas hard hit by Helene, which is not helping anything.


-Ethan

 
 
 

Comments


Don't Miss a Forecast

Subscribe to emails so you don't miss a thing!

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram

Thanks for subscribing!

bottom of page