Tracking the Tropics, Thursday PM Update. Still monitoring

🌀TROPICAL UPDATE: It is me again. I am sure you’re getting bored with these daily updates, but I am working hard to keep you updated. Yes, I am still monitoring a tropical wave producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the southeastern Bahamas. The development of this system is expected to occur slowly over the next day or so as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. A Tropical Storm is now forecasted to develop this week or early next week across the Gulf Coast; the National Hurricane gives it a 70% chance. Interests along the Gulf Coast, Florida, and Southeast United States should continue to monitor the forecast. Here’s my newest thinking. 

Key Messages: 

👌 Things that have changed over the last 24 hours: Models have shifted west towards the Gulf, on the weaker track for the first start of the system. This is track one, as I’ve been talking about. We now expect the system to track slowly into the Gulf of Mexico. 

👌Models then become stuck, will the system move into Florida and back into the Atlantic potentially impacting the Southeast United States Carolinas sometime next week or will it move further into the Gulf impacting the Gulf Coast states? These are all things we have to figure out over the coming days. 

👌Steering currents are expected to collapse next week, which will cause this system to struggle or stall. It will miss the trough, but does a weakness in the ridge allow it to move back into the Atlantic  Ocean next week? Some guidance is pointing to that. 

👌 It is officially Invest 97L; this would allow for high-resolution hurricane models to run, which will allow for better data. Models are still all over the place, but a consensus is coming together that over the next 72 hours, the system will travel toward the Gulf of Mexico. After that, it becomes complicated. Folks in Florida need to be watching very closely for possible impacts late weekend beginning of next week.  

👌 REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IT WILL NOT IMPACT NORTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND OR MONDAY. THE EARLIEST IMPACTS, IF ANY, WOULD BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.   

✔️That was the Cliff notes, if I lost you there you know everything you need to know.  

🌊➡️Now, deep into the forecast.

📌INSIDE THE FORECAST: The Tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Southeastern Bahamas right now, being guided by a ridge of high pressure. As we talked about yesterday, what part of the wave axis becomes dominant will be key to where the system goes in the short term. Models and satellite imagery suggest the southern axis of the wave will. This means track 1 from yesterday will be the short term track, we expect the system to move into the Gulf of Mexico now. Let me cation folks beyond the next 36-72 hours the forecast remains very fluid, some models take it to Hurricane strength while others keep it a tropical storm. This will all have to be ironed out over the coming days. 

Where does the system go next week, we know the system will likely travel into the Gulf of Mexico but where does it go after that? Below are possible tracks. 

🟣Track 1.1 (Purple) The system makes landfall along the Florida west coast, and then the weakness in the ridge and some steering currents pushes the system into the Atlantic Ocean early next week. This would allow the system to slowly move up the SE coastline, potentially directly impacting the Carolinas. Let me caution you; some of you might see people just show this track because they want the views/clicks/hype, especially sources based in North Carolina. A couple of models do show this. However, it could easily change over the next 36 hours. All options are on the table. 

🔵Track 2.1 (Blue) Does the system stall along the Big Bend/make landfall part of the Florida/Gulf Coast states for days and bring heavy rain and some wind? This is a solution, this would likely not directly impact NC for a while and at that point maybe just some rain late week. Too soon to know on that, or anything like just some speculation 

🟢 Track 3.1 (Green) Does the system move further into the Gulf of Mexico potentially hitting other Gulf coast states next week, it could be a hurricane at that point. This an option, but we don’t know for sure models have a wide range of options at this point. 

➡️😎 The Bottom Line: We have a consensus coming together that the system will move into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 72 hours as a weaker system we talked about track 1 for several days after that. We don’t know where exactly it might go. We have the solutions for now, and it is just an uncertain forecast with a hurry-up and wait. There is no reason to panic or cancel plans at this time here in North Carolina. It is definitely something to keep an eye on. You're going to continue to see hype posts and scary news articles. Rest assured, you don't need to panic. It would be a good time to review your hurricane plans, especially along the coast, as we're heading into the heart of Hurricane season. Models are all over the place, and no one can tell you where or what will happen exactly to this system other than looking at possible paths based on the environmental setups. The Bottom Line is to keep an eye on it, but we're in a hurry-up wait period. North Carolina, enjoy the weekend. Some storms are possible, but not related to anything tropical. Regardless no impacts in NC this weekend. I'll continue to provide as many updates as possible to help you and your family as I have for eight years through Hurricane season.