A severe weather event is expected to unfold across the Carolinas this afternoon.
Well, overnight models were able to get a better handle on the situation today for Severe Weather. In fact, The Storm Prediction Center upgraded part of the state to a level 3/5 Enhanced Risk of Severe weather. A warm and humid airmass and an approaching disturbance will combine to produce thunderstorms, and many of these could be severe.
WHAT HAS CHANGED: The Severe weather risk has increased for The Triad ( Greensboro, Winston Salem) Charlotte Metro, Triangle (Raleigh, Durham, Cary) and Sandhills (Fayetteville, Fort Bragg) The significant overnight change is the increasing risk of damaging winds, in fact, I have upgraded the risk for damaging winds to significant or as in 30%
WHAT: An approaching cold front from the west will bring the chance of severe weather, in fact, The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk for the majority of central and the western Piedmont part of the state. A level 2/5 for the rest of the state. The best combination of instability and shear will be over Central and the western piedmont of North Carolina, over the "enhanced risk" by SPC here is where the Tornado risk is higher. But strong to severe storms are possible statewide this afternoon and evening... storms could produce large hail, strong gusty winds, Flash Flooding, and a few tornadoes. Everyone needs to be weather aware this afternoon and evening, and have a way of receiving warnings in case they are needed. One Key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy) this important for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 2000-2500 J/Kg which is more than enough for storms to fire. However, something that could be in place tomorrow that might cause storms to struggle to develop is a CAP, The cap is a shallow layer of warm air above the surface in the atmosphere. This is also called an inversion. As energy-rich, warm, damp air rises, it may stop rising if it reaches this layer where it is no longer warmer. Just like a hot air balloon goes up when the balloon is warmer than the surrounding air, the same is true for warm, damp air. The CAP must be broken, think of a pressure cooker. When the cap is relatively weak and plenty of moisture-rich warm air is raising, it will begin to build up at this cap, which is also sometimes called a lid. Today models are split on how strong the cap is and if the storms can break, so that's the main question. The longer and stronger the cap is the less amount of thunderstorms will develop. Additionally, the shear will be moderate 30kt-40kt, another important ingredient for severe weather. However, while the wind shear will be moderate directional shear there is still a threat of tornadoes but it is still lower.
THREATS: The main mode of Severe Weather today will be damaging winds, however While winds through the lowest 3 km will remain modest, vertical shear through a deeper layer with winds up to 30-40 kt at 500 mb will support wind profiles at least marginally sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation thus a few Tornadoes are possible in some storms, but multicellular convection will probably be the dominant mode as storms consolidate into lines and clusters. Strong to damaging wind gusts to 60-70mph should be the primary threat with large hail to ping pong balls. The timing of these storms will be from mid-afternoon to the evening hours. Models are showing discrete supercells out ahead of the main line over / Central/western piedmont NC, this trend will be monitored for Tornadoes.
MORE BELOW KEEP READING
Storms will begin to fire across the mountains by early afternoon and push east through the afternoon and evening, these storms will be in a scattered to a broken line. Not everybody will see thunderstorms.
Don't freak out I got you covered! Please stay tuned for updates as things and will change, 24/7 updates throughout the storms will occur on North Carolina's Weather Authority. I am closely monitoring the situation, make sure you have many ways to receive severe weather alerts. Questions please message on the Facebook page not on the website!
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
I want to remind you with severe weather and hurricane seasons coming up, to sign up for our FREE text alert service! Texts reach you when you have little cell service and you don't have to download anything and take up storage. This is not automated - I am constantly monitoring warnings. That is our priority: your safety. You will only receive alerts for the counties in which you subscribe to. You are welcome to signup/subscribe to as many counties as you wish to and can unsubscribe at any time.
To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX