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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Sunday evening tropical update.

🌀 Tropical Update: I hope everyone had a good weekend. I thought I would provide another Tropical Update on this Sunday evening. Clearly, there are a lot of things going around, because today alone, I've well over 200 messages about will NC be hit by a major Hurricane etc? Y'all, please take a deep breath and relax, it is that time of year when scary model runs are going to happen, and in the end, many of those runs will never turn to reality. So, please make sure you find trusted weather sources and not some crazy hype train. So what's the deal with the tropics??



📌This evening, the National Hurricane Center is watching two areas for development, #1 (Invest 97L), which is located in the Tropical Atlantic, and the other #2 (Invest 96L) is located in the middle Atlantic. The quick 411 on the #2 is this system will likely not develop into much and is not a threat by any means.


📌#1 The wave moving off the coast of Africa and over the Cabo Verde islands has a very high chance of becoming a Tropical Storm over the next 7 days 90% according to the National Hurricane Center. It will likely develop into a Tropical Storm, and many models show it'll develop into a Hurricane, which I also believe will happen. Models are generally in agreement that the system will be guided by a ridge of high pressure to the west over the next 5-7 days, but after that the picture is not 100% and that is to be expected with a developing system and with many days ahead to watch it.


📌As of now, the setup shows the system will either recurve out to sea in the breakness of the ridge or the ridge could close, and the high pressure pushes the system further east towards the East Coast of the United States. I don't think we can compeltly write off the system for United States/NC impacts, but the trends as of now are in our favor and most models send this out to sea and bring some increased Surf/Rip Currents to NC, but with the system still being 10+ days away and no closed center no one can tell you with confidence what will happen.


📌On image 2, I've created a graphic showing how long it takes systems in the Atlantic to travel on average. So again, there's plenty of time to monitor and see if this will ever pose a threat to the mainland. Note the graphic is just an example on image 2 and not a REAL FORECAST.


😎Bottom Line: There is no tropical threat to NC over the next 9 days, after that we will keep an eye out, but nothing to worry about or panic about right now. Keep an eye to the forecast, I will likely update daily on this system until we are confident it is heading out to sea. The only thing you can do right now is make sure you have your hurricane plans in place, and they are ready to activate, because well, it is hurricane season and we should be ready regardless of the forecast. Also, please don't fall for scary posts and hype for something that is at most 10+ days away.


Ethan

 
 
 

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