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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening

⛈️ Sunday Severe Weather Threat: On Sunday afternoon, we will have our first substantial chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in more than 3 weeks across the state. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state under a level 1/5 risk for severe weather and Raleigh and Greensboro north under a level 2/5 risk. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be the main threat on Sunday.


WHAT: The Lee surface trough and an approaching cold front will be the lift for the thunderstorms, so we should have ample CAPE (CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy), which is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instability of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm.) I expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon and evening across the state. We should have some wind shear that would help allow for some microbursts leading to a damaging winds threat on Sunday.


⏰ Timing: Storms will start developing on and off from 1-10PM. We will not really have lines of storms; we will just have scattered pulse popup storms with conditions allowing for some severe weather.



⚠️ Threats: Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threats, but a couple of storms could be strong to severe statewide but, especially across the level 2 area; we could have some damaging winds. Conditions do not support tornados; I can't say the threat is 0% because we always keep a 1% chance just in case a storm wants to go crazy; that would be mainly in the level 2 area. However, the main threat is damaging winds, so we should not have to worry about tornadoes at this point.


The Bottom Line: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the state, and a couple could become strong to severe with damaging winds. Stay weather aware Sunday afternoon and evening across the state. There is no reason to panic; it is much-needed rain, and we need any storms we can get. Coverage will be about 50-60% of the state on Sunday. I'll have updates like normal all Sunday afternoon/evening.


-Ethan

 
 
 

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