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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe Storms Possible this evening

Severe Weather Update: Once again, we will have the risk of strong to severe storms across the state. Our setup today will be a little different compared to the past few days; we will have an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) which is a thunderstorm complex that is ongoing across Tennessee that will move into the Western parts of the state this evening.




The Storm Prediction Center has placed all areas from Greensboro West under a level 2/5 risk of severe weather. Areas across Central NC are under a level 1/5 risk mainly because of the loss of daytime heating and how late the thunderstorm complex will roll through.

The environment across Western NC will be primed for severe storms this evening; the main threat appears to be damaging winds, although an isolated spin-up tornado can't be possible. The thunderstorm complex will push east through the late evening, and we could see a couple of strong to severe storms across Central NC. The severe weather threat should diminish as it pushes towards Eastern/Coastal NC early Monday morning.

 

The thunderstorm complex will roll into the state after about 4PM through the late evening into the overnight hours; models struggle with this setup, so we should be aware from about 4PM to 1AM, clearing west to east.




The Bottom Line: Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the early overnight hours, especially in Greensboro/Charlotte and points west, with a lower risk east. An isolated popup storm can’t be ruled out across Eastern/Coastal NC this evening. I’ll be following the progression of the storms closely and will provide updates like normal. Have a good day.

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