Strong to Severe Storms Possible this afternoon and evening across some of the state.

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Good morning, all. Our Severe Weather Threat has increased some for parts of the state this morning, but it's still not the end of the world. I will walk you through my thoughts below, exactly how I see them. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of North Carolina under a level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather for this afternoon and evening as an approaching cold front pushes east. Parts of Central NC, from Raleigh-Greensboro-Charlotte-Fayetteville have been upgraded to a level 3/5 risk of Severe Weather. I am expecting a line to broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move east, but severe weather is not a complete slam dunk for everyone. There are still some questions about exactly how the storms progress today, but it is worth being prepared, as today looks higher than what we've been seeing.

📌WHAT: A low-pressure system will move NE along with a trailing strong cold front that will push east into North Carolina on Friday, and ahead of the frontal system, a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into the Western Mountains this morning will continue to push east through the day. There are still some questions and uncertainties in the forecast that will limit the severity of some of the severe weather. We've seen a cold pool of clouds and fog over Central NC that is taking a bit to clear out this morning. The longer this stays around the better, as it will limit some severe weather, but the threat is still there. Models show it clearing into a partly sunny sky, which will allow for CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm, to increase to 1,500-2,000 j/kg, which is more than enough for some strong to severe storms, along with some wind shear. Again, there is still the potential that there are not as many severe storms because of this. Just something to watch!

⚠️Threats: Based on the data and my experience with this type of setup, I am thinking we will have a line to broken line of showers and thunderstorms to push east across North Carolina. A couple of strong to severe storms will be present along the line, with gusty to damaging winds (Damaging winds is the highest threat) and some hail being the main threats. However, with some boundaries around and some wind shear, I can't rule out an isolated tornado threat, mainly at any point, but overall the tornado threat is not that high. Looking through the latest data, the best chance for a Tornado threat appears to be in the black box area I drew in Image 1 below.

The area at most significant risk for some strong to severe storms appears to be the Eastern Foothills and parts of Eastern North Carolina in the level 3/5 risk area.

➡️Timing: The line of showers and thunderstorms will push east through the mountains late this morning into early afternoon and then across Central and Eastern NC afternoon through late evening east. (see radar images below don't take it literally) I do expect everything to be gone before it gets too late this evening. I think storms will be more of a line, so a quick-hitting event for each location, and then it will be done. However, a couple of storms could develop out ahead of the line this afternoon in areas where more clearing occurs.

😎The Bottom Line: The Severe Weather Threat is slightly higher on today for some than it has been recently, but I still don't think it'll be a completely widespread amount of severe weather at this point. We will need to stay aware of some strong to severe storms that move through on Friday; there is no reason to panic. Have a plan in place in case a warning is issued, and be prepared for some strong to severe storms passing in hit or miss. Not everyone sees severe weather it is more localized!

I'll keep you updated throughout the day, but make sure you have ways to get warnings just in case you need them. 😊

-Ethan