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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe Storms Possible, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH: The Severe Weather Threat has increased some for Eastern/Coastal NC; thus a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service until 8PM for most of Eastern North Carolina. Warm and muggy conditions are already resulting in increased CAPE values all across Eastern NC up to 3000j/kg, allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop.


Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across eastern North Carolina, in a hot and humid environment. Sufficiently strong winds aloft will result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the most intense cells. The main threat for a few strong to Severe Storms will be along and East of I-95 to the coast from now until after sunset 8-9PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally produce tornadoes, although that threat is very low today. .



NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED UNDER THE WATCH ARE


BEAUFORT BERTIE BRUNSWICK

CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN

CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE

DUPLIN GATES GREENE

HYDE JONES LENOIR

MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW

PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER

PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL


I’ll keep you updated through the afternoon and evening, no reason to panic; widespread severe weather is not expected. A few strong to severe storms are possible.


-Ethan

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