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Strong to Severe Storms Possible Monday PM

Severe Weather Update: Well, here we go again or something like that. This is now day 4 of the potential of Severe Weather across NC. My apologies for the delay in the update; I have been up since 4 tracking ongoing thunderstorms. As with most severe weather setups, this setup is extremely complicated and has many uncertainties. I am going to try and walk you through it all below. First, the experts at The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, have placed all of Central and Eastern NC under a level 2/5 risk for Severe Weather, basically from Charlotte and Greensboro east. There is continued uncertainty today regarding thunderstorm coverage.

WHAT: The MCS Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms and normally persists for several hours or more. This has largely fallen apart across the North Carolina mountains, and leading to extensive cloud coverage across Western/Central NC. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms across Central NC have hampered the heating of the day thanks to more clouds.

-On satellite, skies are clear largely for the entire area east of I-95 across Eastern/Coastal NC, where CAPE value Convective Available Potential Energy has already increased to nearly 2,500 j/kg, which is already enough to support storms. Based on the morning data, it appears the best potential for additional strong to severe storms will be across the Sandhills/Coastal Plains/ Eastern NC and Coastal NC. Raleigh areas and point west , we will have to see if the atmosphere can even recover from the cold pool that occurred this morning and the extensive ongoing cloud coverage.

- Threats: The atmosphere has plenty of parameters to work with for any storms that are able to overcome the firing period to become strong to severe. Any storms that become severe could have damaging winds, large hail, and there is even a tornado threat mainly along and East of I95 where the Storm Prediction has placed this area under a 5% chance of seeing a tornado within a given point, this is much higher than normal. On the latest soundings across Eastern NC, increasing wind shear aloft, which is the changing of the winds as you increase in height, would support an isolated tornado risk. I do think there is potential to see a tornado or two across Eastern NC if conditions develop, as models show.

Timing: The main threat of any strong to severe storms will be mainly after lunchtime through about 9PM ending much earlier to the west longer in Eastern/Coastal NC.

I want to stress these are worst case potentials but I believe in being transparent and telling you how it is without the fluff. I don’t expect widespread coverage due to the clouds, if you’re in an area with extensive cloud coverage all morning and early afternoon you’ll probably not see very much today.

Bottom Line: We’ve been through this many, many times. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the severe weather threat for the remainder of the day, but you should stay aware, especially across Eastern NC. I’ll watch through the morning and provide updates and thoughts as needed



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