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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe Storms possible across parts of Eastern/SE NC today.

⛈️: There is a risk of Strong to Severe Storms across parts of Eastern and Southeastern North Carolina this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 1/5 risk for Severe from Charlotte to Raleigh to Elizabeth City South and a level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather from Fayetteville south and east towards the coast.


WHAT: A cold front will slowly slide southeast today, sparking off showers and thunderstorms, a couple of which could become strong to severe. CAPE and Shear values appear conducive for storms and even some severe weather.


⚠️: A few strong could become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail. I can’t rule out an isolated tornado, especially if a supercell can get going.


⏰: Timing of storms will be from about 2PM-10PM.


The Bottom Line is there is a risk of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across Eastern and Southeastern NC, nothing we haven’t seen before. There is no reason to panic, but stay weather-aware this afternoon and evening. I’ll be monitoring and providing updates as needed.

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