Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe Storms possible across Central NC today.

Ethan Clark
Aug 3, 2024
1 min read

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Weather is not a boring job, that's for sure. In addition to tracking the tropics, we have the risk of Severe Weather today. A trough will approach from the mountains, allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk of Severe Weather this afternoon and evening for parts of Central/Piedmont, NC.

📌WHAT: A trough over the mountains will slowly shift east this afternoon and evening, the combination of high CAPE values up. to 3000 j/kg and 25-35kt wind shear will create showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The greatest areas for Severe Weather will be in the level 2/5 risk area on image one below.

⚠️ THREATS: A couple of strong to severe storms are likely, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the main threats. However, I can't completely rule out an isolated spin-up tornado threat. It is a very low threat, but still enough to warn of it just in case. There is a higher chance for training storms today, which could result in locally heavy rainfall amounts of 2 inches or more. This could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

⏰ TIMING: 1-10PM, storms will gradually die down as the sun sets. This means the threat of severe weather for coastal/eastern NC will be rather low.

👀 The Bottom LIne: Stay weather aware this afternoon and evening, especially across Central NC; scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. I'll keep you posted.

-Ethan