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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Strong to Severe storms expected this afternoon and evening.

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Never a dull moment in North Carolina; round two of severe weather is expected today across the state. A morning look at the data reveals a frontal boundary across the state, followed by a strong shortwave trough over KY/TN; these will all work to produce showers and thunderstorms today across NC. This morning, we're seeing a few showers across the Piedmont this will gradually push into the NE Coastal Plains over the next few hours. Satellite shows some clearing skies across SE/Sandhills NC, allowing for CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available for a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instability of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm.) to begin increasing.



WHAT: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 (Slight) risk of severe weather from Charlotte to Raleigh to Greenville south this afternoon and evening. A level 1/5 risk has been issued for the rest of the state. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, and a couple of storms could become strong to severe.


⚠️ Threats: The main severe risk this afternoon and evening will be a couple of strong to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail; however, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out across the boundary south and east from Raleigh in the level 2/5 risk area. I don't expect widespread severe weather, but a few storms will become strong to severe. CAPE and Wind Shear values on the forecast models support it.



The Bottom Line: Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly from 2-10PM across the state; you should stay weather aware. There is no reason to panic; have ways to get warnings and have a plan in place, and you'll be fine! I'll be monitoring the data, radar, and progress of storms all day.

Best Ethan.

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