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Strong to Severe storms expected this afternoon and evening.

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Never a dull moment in North Carolina; round two of severe weather is expected today across the state. A morning look at the data reveals a frontal boundary across the state, followed by a strong shortwave trough over KY/TN; these will all work to produce showers and thunderstorms today across NC. This morning, we're seeing a few showers across the Piedmont this will gradually push into the NE Coastal Plains over the next few hours. Satellite shows some clearing skies across SE/Sandhills NC, allowing for CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available for a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instability of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm.) to begin increasing.

WHAT: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 (Slight) risk of severe weather from Charlotte to Raleigh to Greenville south this afternoon and evening. A level 1/5 risk has been issued for the rest of the state. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, and a couple of storms could become strong to severe.

⚠️ Threats: The main severe risk this afternoon and evening will be a couple of strong to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail; however, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out across the boundary south and east from Raleigh in the level 2/5 risk area. I don't expect widespread severe weather, but a few storms will become strong to severe. CAPE and Wind Shear values on the forecast models support it.

The Bottom Line: Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly from 2-10PM across the state; you should stay weather aware. There is no reason to panic; have ways to get warnings and have a plan in place, and you'll be fine! I'll be monitoring the data, radar, and progress of storms all day.

Best Ethan.


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