Tonight/ Wednesday Weather Update: A strong and very dynamic cold front will roll through the state tonight and into Wednesday. The Severe Weather Threat across Eastern/Coastal NC has increased, as the Storm Prediction Center has now placed most of Eastern (East of i95) under a level 2/5 risk of severe weather. I'll explain the forecast and threats. There is no reason to panic, but I wanted to keep everyone in the loop.
Periods of rain will move into the state this evening overnight, and no severe weather is expected overnight! Rain will overspread the state from west to east on and off overnight, which will provide great sleeping weather. Some rain could be heavy at times, but I expect most of the state to get 1-3 inches of rain by Wednesday afternoon. There could be some localized spots that see 3-5 inches of rain from training showers/ storms. While we've been dry, I do expect some localized flooding across the state, but there will be some flash flooding in areas that normally flood first. So, if you live or drive in areas that normally flood, don't be caught off guard by some areas of flooding on Wednesday.
Gusty winds are possible statewide 20-45MPH as the cold front moves through; regardless of Severe Weather starting tonight into Wednesday, I can't rule out a couple of isolated power outages.
Severe Weather: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1/5 east of Raleigh and a Level 2/5 risk for the rest of Eastern/Coastal NC, mainly i-95 east. There will be abundance of wind energy, and there will be some CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm). I think a few strong to severe storms are likely; I know it is December, but we can have severe weather in the winter, so do not be caught off guard by that. I don't expect widespread severe weather.
Threats: A couple of strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be possible, but I can't rule out an isolated tornado threat, especially in the level 2 areas.
Timing: The main timing for any severe weather will be between 10AM-6PM.
The Bottom Line: A Strong cold front will roll through tonight into Wednesday; most will see periods of rain, followed by a sharp drop in temps late Wednesday as winter roars back. There could be some localized flash flooding, too. Parts of Eastern NC could see some strong to severe storms Wednesday, and gusty winds are possible statewide. As always, there's no reason to worry, I'll pass along some updates and thoughts as the next 24 hours goes on.
-Ethan
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