Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COMING AND FLASH FLOODING

ncwxauthority

Jun 6, 2019

3 min read

A major pattern change is on the way starting tomorrow and lasting through at least Wednesday of next week, in fact, we may not see a completely dry day until next Thursday. Models continue to illustrate a very wet period over the next few days, widespread rainfall and Flash Flooding expected.

WHAT: Two areas of low pressure (one over the Gulf of Mexico and another off the NC coast) will bring a flow of moist air across central NC, resulting in rain through early next week. The combination of Tropical moisture and a stalled cold front will create for major rainfall, especially from Greensboro and points west. Precipitable Water near 2" will bring a high chance for slow-moving storms. High Pressure north will create a blocking situation, this will result of days of clouds and on off thunderstorms and rain.

Weak high pressure nosing down east of the Appalachians will provide weak cold air damming settling somewhere between I-85 and I-20 Saturday before gradually eroding late Sunday. Southeasterly riding up and over the cool dome near the surface will provide areas of enhanced rainfall rates near the cold air damming boundary as well as near the escarpment, including the North Carolina foothills and southwest mountains due to decent upslope enhancement. Model guidance suggests there will be enough breaks in the clouds south and east of the cold air damming boundary at times to allow for at least some destabilization, raising the risk for thunderstorms for these areas in the mountains and foothills. Over Central and Eastern NC training showers and thunderstorms will be likely at any-point over the weekend

RAINFALL/FLOODING: Rainfall amounts over the weekend are expected to be fairly impressive, on the order of two to four inches for areas East of Greensboro to the coast. 4-6 inches of rain west of Greensboro, and 7-8" of rain where the training of thunderstorms occur near the wedge boundary or near the escarpment in the Foothills and Mountains (Hickory west) . The risk of flooding is particularly concerning late Saturday into Sunday as rounds of heavier rainfall leading up to this time will prime the area for the potential for flash flooding and debris flows (mountains) as well as flooding and even potentially some flooding for prone rivers, despite recent dry conditions. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center day three forecast now has most of the western part of the state (see below) in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall Saturday into Saturday night.

Above is a look at my predictions of rainfall based on a verity of models, this was hard, the GFS and EURO are not on the same track at all. While the Euro is forecasting upwards of 10-12" in the mountains and Foothills, the GFS has haft that amount and less east. My forecast is right in the middle of both.

Above is the forecasted area of Moderate and Slight risk of Flash Flooding Saturday through Sunday from the Weather Prediction Center, moderate risks are rather uncommon for North Carolina. Flash flood forecasting is still one of the most difficult aspects of meteorology. If you live near a creek or river, or in a low line area, now is the time to make sure you are prepared for rapid raises of water and Flash Flooding.

While the weekend will not be a complete washout, it will be very wet with on and off showers and thunderstorms likely everywhere. Unfortunately, we can not pinpoint exactly where and when the rain will fall over the weekend so I would have alternative plans in place. Please stay tuned for updates over the next few days. Bottom line is be ready for a very wet period through at least Wednesday, there will be breaks and sunshine. However, Flash Flooding is real concern as we head toward the end of the weekend.

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