top of page

​

Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO BRING HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO THE COAST

Writer: ncwxauthority
ncwxauthority
Nov 14, 2019
2 min read

A developing coastal low will bring significant impacts to the coast from Friday through Sunday. The coastal low will move up the coast, starting Friday bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the coast. Another major concern is going to be the impacts of Coastal Flooding, significant sound-side, and ocean overwash expected. The main impacts will be along the Crystal Coast and the Outer Banks with minor effects on the southern coast (Wilmington south). The exact track of the coastal low will impact what the coast sees.


Here's an early look at the impacts:

RAIN: Heavy rainfall will move in along the coast, starting Friday morning along the southern coast and move up the coast through the afternoon. The greatest rainfall will be along the coast 2-3" possible for the southern coast (Wilmington South). The heaviest rainfall appears to along the Outer Banks and Crystal coast 2-4" likely. Minor Flash Flooding will be possible, but due to the long duration of rain flooding will be low from rain.

COASTAL FLOODING: Significant to life-threatening coastal flooding expected along the Outer Banks starting Friday night through Sunday. The flooding will be both from ocean overwash and sound-side flooding. Potential for life-threatening storm surge, 2 to 4 feet above the ground with higher amounts possible High surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash likely.

GREATEST IMPACTS: Strong northerly winds will bring moderate to potentially significant Coastal Flooding to the Outer Banks. Soundside Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet to Carteret County. The Lower Neuse River and the southern shores of Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. Significant oceanside impacts are expected along the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras north to Oregon Inlet. High 12 will become inundated and impassible in some portions this weekend.


WINDS: High Winds are possible mainly along the coast from Carteret County to the OBX Hyde and Dare counties, winds could gust up to 50-60MPH along the immediate coast. Impacts some power outages will be possible and minor damage to weakened properties. Strongest period of winds will be from Saturday morning to early Sunday along the Outer Banks.


South to the Cape Fear only minor wind gusts to 30-40MPH little to no impacts here from wind, however; the closer the low moves to the Cape Fear, Wilmington, Brunswick County area there could be stronger impacts.


As we get closer to the event details we come together a little better, stay tuned for updates on North Carolina's Weather Authority Facebook and website!

 
 
 

Comments

Don't Miss a Forecast

Subscribe to emails so you don't miss a thing!

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram

Thanks for subscribing!

bottom of page