Severe Weather Update: I am tracking a complex weather system that will move through the state on Sunday; there's a conditional Severe Weather Threat for Central and Eastern NC. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 1/5 risk of Severe Weather from areas west of Raleigh to Charlotte/Greensboro, basically to I77. Further east, a level 2/5 risk has been issued from Raleigh and points east. All threats are on the table, but it is not going to be the end all be all. I don't think we will see widespread severe weather; it'll be very hit or miss. I'll explain below.
Cliff Notes for folks who don't want to read the post: -Risk of a few strong to severe storms Sunday for parts of Central and Eastern NC. -Damaging winds, large hail, an isolated Tornado threat -Severe Threats around all-day
WHAT: A surface low will be positioned over NC during the morning hours on Sunday; we will have very strong low-level winds advancing through the state, especially Eastern NC. Winds aloft will have some turning as we increase in height; this points to me that there is at least a low-end tornado threat. The storm mode will likely be messy with likely 2 rounds of storms, one threat in the morning hours Sunday and another round in the afternoon/evening. I think the sloppy mode will help reduce our widespread severe weather threat. However, if storms do become discrete, we could definitely see an increased tornado threat, something to monitor Sunday.
Threats: Any storms that can get going and take advantage of the ingredients will have the threat of damaging winds, large hail, and even a Tornado. Once again, I don't think it'll be a widespread severe weather event at this time, but we should stay aware Sunday, especially my Central and Eastern NC folks. The timing will be all day Sunday, with the threat starting first thing in the morning; I'll be monitoring and posting updates as usual.
The Bottom Line: An active Sunday with showers/storms likely on and off all day, is not the end of the world, just rather inconvenient. Be aware of a couple of strong to severe storms; as always, we will get through it.