SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 Risk of Severe Weather Today from about Raleigh east to the coast. A strong cold front will approach the area from the west. Today will be different than an average Severe Weather day.
That being said, I don't expect widespread Severe Weather it should be more isolated to very spotty at best. One key ingredient for severe weather is CAPE ( Convective Available Potential Energy) this important for the development of severe weather. Models are showing 500-1000 J/Kg which is barley enough for severe weather. You usually want above 1,500 J/Kg for significant severe weather. Additionally, the shear will be moderate 30kt-40t, another important ingredient for severe weather. However, while the wind shear will be moderate rotational shear; the clouds and low CAPE could help prevent more than a few isolated severe storms. Additionally, something that will be in place today that might cause storms to struggle to develop is a CAP. The cap is a shallow layer of warm air above the surface in the atmosphere. This is also called an inversion. As energy-rich, warm, damp air rises, it may stop rising if it reaches this layer where it is no longer warmer. Just like a hot air balloon goes up when the balloon is warmer than the surrounding air, the same is true for warm, damp air. The CAP must be broken, think of a pressure cooker. When the cap is relatively weak and plenty of moisture-rich warm air is raising, it will begin to build up at this cap, which is also sometimes called a lid. Today models are showing some CAP; which will help cut down on storms. The longer and stronger the cap is the less amount of thunderstorms will develop. We just don't have the models strong enough to predict that so, there's still a threat today.
Above is a forecast sounding this is how meteorologists forecast, you can see the green line hitting the red line on the left image. This is showing a CAP will be in place.
The greatest chance to see 1 or 2 tornadoes will be along the I95 corridor from Raleigh to Goldsboro, and a little further east to just west of the coast. Only an isolated tornado; no reason to panic.
THREATS: The main mode of Severe Weather today will be damaging winds, however; while winds through the lowest 3 km will remain modest, vertical shear through a deeper layer with winds up to 30-40 kt at 500 mb will support wind profiles at least marginally sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation thus an isolated Tornado is possible in some storms, but multicellular convection will probably be the dominant mode as storms consolidate into lines and clusters. I'm not expecting widespread Severe Weather, in fact; many of us may not even see rain.
Less sun is better; if you don't see sunshine today that is good. This will hold down the instability. No reason to panic at all; the fact is many of us will likely not even notice the severe threat. It is very unclear how if any, the warm front convection this morning will impact the atmosphere.
Here's the best look at the timing of the severe storms, remember not everyone will see them only about 20-30% coverage. We could see scattered showers before this.
SEVERE WEATHER TEXT ALERTS
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To sign up you will still need to make sure your text (in your cell phone text messages) the EXACT spelling of the capitalized word on the list BELOW to 84483 to sign up for that county.
I have added 100 NC counties out of 100 counties, As always all warnings and watches will be posted on FB for all 100 counties.
(this is exactly how you have to text your county in your cell phone text messages to 84483 to sign up). ALAMANCECOWX ALEXANDERCOWX ALLEGHANYCOWX ANSONCOWX ASHECOWX AVERYCOWX BEAUFORTCOWX BERTIECOWX BLADENCOWX BRUNSWICKCOWX BUNCOMBECOWX BURKECOWX CABARRUSCOWX CALDWELLCOWX CAMDENCOWX CARTERETCOWX CASWELLCOWX CATAWBACOWX CHATHAMCOWX CHEROKEECOWX CHOWANCOWX CLAYCOWX CLEVELANDCOWX COLUMBUSCOWX CRAVENCOWX CUMBERLANDCOWX CURRITUCKCOWX DARECOWX DAVIDSONCOWX DAVIECOWX DUPLINCOWX DURHAMCOWX EDGECOMBECOWX FORSYTHCOWX FRANKLINCOWX GASTONCOWX GATESCOWX GRAHAMCOWX GRANVILLECOWX GREENECOWX GUILFORDCOWX HALIFAXCOWX HARNETTCOWX HAYWOODCOWX HENDERSONCOWX HERTFORDCOWX HOKECOWX HYDECOWX IREDELLCOWX JACKSONCOWX JOHNSTONCOWX JONESCOWX LEECOWX LENOIRCOWX LINCOLNCOWX MACONCOWX MADISONCOWX MARTINCOWX MCDOWELLCOWX MECKLENBURGCOWX MITCHELLCOWX MONTGOMERYCOWX MOORECOWX NASHCOWX NEWHANOVERCOWX NORTHAMPTONCOWX ONSLOWCOWX ORANGECOWX PAMLICOCOWX PASQUOTANKCOWX PENDERCOWX PERQUIMANSCOWX PERSONCOWX PITTCOWX POLKCOWX RANDOLPHCOWX RICHMONDCOWX ROBESONCOWX ROCKINGHAMCOWX ROWANCOWX RUTHERFORDCOWX SAMPSONCOWX SCOTLANDCOWX STANLYCOWX STOKESCOWX SURRYCOWX SWAINCOWX TRANSYLVANIACOWX TYRRELLCOWX UNIONCOWX VANCECOWX WAKECOWX WARRENCOWX WASHINGTONCOWX WATAUGACOWX WAYNECOWX WILKESCOWX WILSONCOWX YADKINCOWX YANCEYCOWX