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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY

Dec 28, 2018
2 min read

Well here we go again for the 5th week in a row another major storm system will move through NC, already seeing major problems in Western NC with River, creeks flooding, and Flash Flooding across much of western and southwestern NC. The Storm Prediction Center has just expanded the Severe Weather Risk to include all of Central and Eastern NC

Here's the risk outlined in green.

WHAT: Today is one of those days were we have high shear, but low cape so it is hard for storms to get Severe. Furthermore, the models are showing the potential for isolated damaging winds and tornadoes. We also have a boundary setting over central NC and the Sandhills later this afternoon, here is where the greatest chance of one or two tornadoes will be. With Severe parameters being a little higher, I am concerned about spotty damaging winds and an isolated Tornado or two widespread Severe Weather not expected! Here's a look at the tornado risk.


TIMING: The greatest chance of Severe Weather will be between 12PM-6PM today!


Here's a look at the future radar for about 4PM, you can see a line of storms moving through Central NC.


Severe Threats: Tornado threat mostly over Central NC and the Sandhills, will be isolated one to maybe two storms could have an isolated tornado widespread tornadoes will not happen.


High Temps for Today


FLOODING: A rather serious situation has developed over Western NC moderate river flooding is occurring along the French Broad. Heavy rain of 2-4 inches occurring on top of already saturated soils is producing significant runoff within the French Broad River basin. The French Broad River from Rosman to Blantyre is already above Minor Flood Stage and rising, causing widespread flooding of low-lying areas and water crossings. Flooding of low-lying areas adjacent to the river near Fletcher is underway and worsening. It will take some time for the floodwave to crest and travel down the French Broad River. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches will cause the French Broad River to reach Minor Flood Stage at Fletcher so the current Flood Advisory is being upgraded to a Flood Warning.





Stay Weather Aware this afternoon and evening, more information and updates will be posted if any storms become severe. Widespread Severe Weather is not expected, also not convinced Severe Weather will be a big deal today think we will see like a few weeks ago were it is a bust.

 
 
 

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