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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Saturday, January 2nd, 2021 Forecast

Finally, a slightly better day ahead today with some sunshine returning for some, not all, but at least some yay! Everyone by late Sunday and especially Monday. Happy Saturday, North Carolina! A shortwave trough finally has moved through and is head away from NC in the wake of it will be areas of fog this morning; I think most of the state should be pretty dry today except for the coast, and extreme Eastern NC could see some passing showers. So, today I believe a lot of the state can definitely finally spend some time outside.


Sky Conditions and Temperatures: I've spent a lot of time trying to figure out what is the best forecast for today; due to the fact we've been stuck in a wedge/Cold Air Damming so long, temperatures are a tough forecast for today. I do think the fog should clear out, and we should see some areas of sunshine across the state, especially away from the coast. I even think some areas could see partly sunny skies at a point, so be on the lookout for that big bright thing in the sky :). Rain chances will quickly return this evening and tonight across the state, so be aware of that.


Temperatures are hard, model guidance is all over the place. We've still got a long ways to go on modeling for Wedges/ Cold air damming despite being just hours out. So here's the deal, at this point, I'm leaning on the lower end of the temperature guidance due to likely cloud cover and fog slow to clear. Highs will be in the 50s to low and mid-60s for all areas from Greenville and Fayetteville west; some locations could end up higher if they see more sunshine or lower if they see less, but this is the best deal right now. Eastern and Coastal NC will see highs in the 60s to even low 70s. Have a great Saturday.



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