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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Overnight Severe Weather Possible

10:37PM Round Two Storms Update: Good evening all; it has been a very busy day across parts of the state and the Tennessee Valley. Luckily across NC the weather has died down for the time being. Unfortunately, it looks like at least part of North Carolina will see a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact parts of the Mountains, Triad, Charlotte Area, and the Pidmount late tonight into the early morning hours on Thursday. I don't think the severe weather threat will be as widespread as earlier today, but a couple of strong to severe storms remain possible overnight.


A thunderstorm complex over Tennessee will move into the NC mountains over the next few hours and further east through the morning hours.



Threats: A couple of strong to severe storms are possible overnight basically for most areas, West of Raleigh have the potential through about 8AM, ending west to east through the morning hours. If you're watching from Raleigh east, the threat of storms will occur mainly after sunrise on Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail, along with heavy rainfall, will be the main threats with a couple of storms, but the tornado threat is not completely 0. If you're across parts of the Mountains, Foothills, Charlotte Area, Triad, to about Raleigh make sure you have a way to get warnings just in case while you sleep.

In central and Eastern NC, a couple of storms are possible after sunrise on Thursday, but it looks more of a rain event with a break before maybe a couple more storms that will develop Thursday afternoon; more thoughts on that in the morning though. If you're reading this from Eastern/Coastal NC there is no reason to worry tonight while you sleep.




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