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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS AS A WINTER STORM MOVES IN TONIGHT

WHITE CHRISTMAS?

SNOW AMOUNTS INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS: Dreaming of a White Christmas, head to the mountains. Accumulating snowfall is expected tonight through Christmas across the mountains of NC; this will be a northwest snow event. Temperatures will be hovering just near to slightly below freezing; this will lead to accumulating snow from Thursday night into Friday. Wind blowing snow is expected due to high wind gusts.

Accumulation: 1-2 to 3-5 inches expected for anyone above 2,000ft; some snow will even fly for the valleys (Asheville). The big winners for snow are above 3,500ft into the Smokies and along the North Carolina Tennesse border 4-8inches like along the highest peaks, for example, the Smokies mountains, Mount Mitchell, the western facing ski resorts, and Blue Ridge Parkways. A few ridgetop locations will exceed 8+ inches, especially in the Smokies. Snowfall amounts are highly dependent on elevation; the higher you are, the better. The lower you are in the valleys, light snowfall possible.

A Winter Storm Warning is posted for Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Ashe-Watauga-Swain-Haywood-Graham-


A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon- Southern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Cherokee-Clay


While areas outside of the mountains will not see a white Christmas. It is very possible tomorrow during the day, there is a few snow flurries or passing snow showers across the state, no accumulation possible. Snow on Christmas is very rare, but I can't rule out about a 20% of a few isolated snow showers statewide tomorrow.


Regardless, it will be very cold with highs in the 20s/30s/40s across the state; once you factor in the wind chills, it will be in the 20s and 30s for most. Mostly sunny skies with an isolated passing snow shower; it will be cool to see a few passing if we do.




 
 
 

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