Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST

ncwxauthority

Nov 15, 2019

3 min read

A developing coastal low will bring major impacts to the coast in a variety of ways starting Friday afternoon through Sunday. The coastal low will begin to move up the coast, starting Friday afternoon bringing heavy rainfall and high winds to the coast especially from Morehead City north to the Outer Banks. A major concern is a potential for major Coastal Flooding, significant sound-side, and ocean overwash is expected. The greatest impacts will be from the Crystal Coast north to the Outer Banks. A High Wind Warning and Coastal Flood Warning has been issued, everything you need to know below. The southern Coast (Wilmington, Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick County, expect only very minor impacts some gusty winds 30-40MPH 2-4" of rain and no coastal flooding. This is a life-threatening situation for the Outer Banks.

RAIN: Heavy rain will develop and will move in along the coast, starting Friday morning along the southern coast and moving up the coast through the afternoon. The greatest rainfall will be along the coast 2-4" possible for the southern coast (Wilmington South). The heaviest rainfall appears to along the Outer Banks and Crystal coast 3-5" with locally higher amounts of 4-8" likely. Minor Flash Flooding will be possible, but due to the long duration of rain flooding will be low from rain.

COASTAL FLOODING (STORM SURGE) Significant to life-threatening coastal flooding expected along the Outer Banks starting Friday night through Sunday. The flooding will be both from ocean overwash and sound-side flooding. Potential for life-threatening storm surge, 2 to 4 feet above the ground with higher amounts possible High surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash likely. Locations of greatest concern, Ocean side locations from Duck down to Ocracoke Island. Sound Side locations in Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

IMPACTS Up to 2 to 4 feet of inundation above ground level, with locally higher amounts, is possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in an elevated threat of property damage. Rough surf, beach erosion, and ocean overwash are possible along the oceanside, and portions of Highway 12 could be inundated and impassable at times. Severe flooding will extend inland from the waterfront causing flooding of many homes and businesses with some structural damage possible. In some areas, battering waves will cause additional damage to property. Numerous roads will be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will be submerged. Some neighborhoods will be isolated and some areas may need to be evacuated.

Potential for life-threatening inundation for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound and lower Neuse River. Rough surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash possible north of Cape Lookout.

GREATEST IMPACTS: Strong northerly winds will bring major Coastal Flooding to the Outer Banks. Soundside Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet to Carteret County. The Lower Neuse River and the southern shores of Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. Significant oceanside impacts are expected along the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras north to Oregon Inlet. High 12 will become inundated and impassible in some portions this weekend.

High Winds are likely mainly along the coast from Carteret County to the OBX Hyde and Dare counties, winds could gust up to 60-70MPH along the immediate coast. Impacts power outages likely will be possible and some damage to weakened properties. Strongest period of winds will be from Saturday morning to early Sunday along the Outer Banks.

South to the Cape Fear only minor wind gusts to 35-45MPH little to no impacts here from wind, however; the closer the low moves to the Cape Fear, Wilmington, Brunswick County area there could be stronger impacts.

Stay tuned for updates on North Carolina's Weather Authority Facebook and website!