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Mountains

Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.


A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.




The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.


-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST

A developing coastal low will bring major impacts to the coast in a variety of ways starting Friday afternoon through Sunday. The coastal low will begin to move up the coast, starting Friday afternoon bringing heavy rainfall and high winds to the coast especially from Morehead City north to the Outer Banks. A major concern is a potential for major Coastal Flooding, significant sound-side, and ocean overwash is expected. The greatest impacts will be from the Crystal Coast north to the Outer Banks. A High Wind Warning and Coastal Flood Warning has been issued, everything you need to know below. The southern Coast (Wilmington, Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick County, expect only very minor impacts some gusty winds 30-40MPH 2-4" of rain and no coastal flooding. This is a life-threatening situation for the Outer Banks.

RAIN: Heavy rain will develop and will move in along the coast, starting Friday morning along the southern coast and moving up the coast through the afternoon. The greatest rainfall will be along the coast 2-4" possible for the southern coast (Wilmington South). The heaviest rainfall appears to along the Outer Banks and Crystal coast 3-5" with locally higher amounts of 4-8" likely. Minor Flash Flooding will be possible, but due to the long duration of rain flooding will be low from rain.

COASTAL FLOODING (STORM SURGE) Significant to life-threatening coastal flooding expected along the Outer Banks starting Friday night through Sunday. The flooding will be both from ocean overwash and sound-side flooding. Potential for life-threatening storm surge, 2 to 4 feet above the ground with higher amounts possible High surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash likely. Locations of greatest concern, Ocean side locations from Duck down to Ocracoke Island. Sound Side locations in Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

IMPACTS Up to 2 to 4 feet of inundation above ground level, with locally higher amounts, is possible in some areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in an elevated threat of property damage. Rough surf, beach erosion, and ocean overwash are possible along the oceanside, and portions of Highway 12 could be inundated and impassable at times. Severe flooding will extend inland from the waterfront causing flooding of many homes and businesses with some structural damage possible. In some areas, battering waves will cause additional damage to property. Numerous roads will be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will be submerged. Some neighborhoods will be isolated and some areas may need to be evacuated.

Potential for life-threatening inundation for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound and lower Neuse River. Rough surf, beach erosion and ocean overwash possible north of Cape Lookout.


GREATEST IMPACTS: Strong northerly winds will bring major Coastal Flooding to the Outer Banks. Soundside Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet to Carteret County. The Lower Neuse River and the southern shores of Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. Significant oceanside impacts are expected along the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras north to Oregon Inlet. High 12 will become inundated and impassible in some portions this weekend.

High Winds are likely mainly along the coast from Carteret County to the OBX Hyde and Dare counties, winds could gust up to 60-70MPH along the immediate coast. Impacts power outages likely will be possible and some damage to weakened properties. Strongest period of winds will be from Saturday morning to early Sunday along the Outer Banks.

South to the Cape Fear only minor wind gusts to 35-45MPH little to no impacts here from wind, however; the closer the low moves to the Cape Fear, Wilmington, Brunswick County area there could be stronger impacts.


Stay tuned for updates on North Carolina's Weather Authority Facebook and website!

 
 
 

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