Low chance of tropical development off the SE US coast

On Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to bring substantial rain to the state of Florida over the next few days; after that, it’ll move into the Atlantic Ocean and meet a cold front. There is a low chance of sown tropical development off the SE United States; the good news is it’ll be moving away from North Carolina as a front will push it away. Regardless of development, there is a risk of some increased surf and rip currents along the NC coast later this week and over the weekend. It should not directly impact North Carolina now; if anything changes, I’ll let you know. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 7 days. We have a long season to go, and it’ll be here every step of the way.

Read more from the National Hurricane Center below;

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.:

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is

producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during

the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later

this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally

unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the

system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless of

development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida

during the next few days. For more information, see products issued

by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service

Forecast Offices.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.