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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Low chance of tropical development off the SE US coast

On Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to bring substantial rain to the state of Florida over the next few days; after that, it’ll move into the Atlantic Ocean and meet a cold front. There is a low chance of sown tropical development off the SE United States; the good news is it’ll be moving away from North Carolina as a front will push it away. Regardless of development, there is a risk of some increased surf and rip currents along the NC coast later this week and over the weekend. It should not directly impact North Carolina now; if anything changes, I’ll let you know. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 7 days. We have a long season to go, and it’ll be here every step of the way.


Read more from the National Hurricane Center below;


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.:

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is

producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during

the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later

this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally

unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the

system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless of

development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida

during the next few days. For more information, see products issued

by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service

Forecast Offices.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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