North Carolina will see some indirect impacts from Hurricane Isaias

Ethan Clark

October 8, 2026 at 11:50:44 AM

🌀 Hurricane Isaias Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I know you've been waiting for this; here's my forecast update on Isaias's indirect impacts on North Carolina this weekend. The positives: This is NOT a repeat of Helene by any means at all, so please don't think that! The weekend isn't a total washout; there will be dry time, and the storm is moving fast enough to clear out pretty quickly. The world is not ending here in NC, and we will be just fine. Don't stress. Isaias became a Hurricane overnight and will keep strengthening until landfall, and it will make landfall along the Florida/Alabama-Mississippi coast on Friday evening; significant impacts are likely in these areas. This update will cover impacts in NC, though. Even though Isaias's center will go into Tennessee and not impact NC directly, we will get indirect impacts from the outer bands and the surrounding front.

📌Here's how I think it'll play out:

RAIN: Scattered to isolated showers will be around across the state Saturday morning, and but there will be breaks and dry time for sure Saturday morning into the afternoon; coverage looks pretty hit or miss. Saturday afternoon and evening rain chances ramp up, especially west and along the coast, it seems; some rain could be heavy at times by the time the evening and overnight rolls along. Sunday morning rain will be around hit or miss throughout the state, and start clearing out Sunday PM/evening. The race in Charlotte is trending drier btw.

Amounts Image 2: Rainfall through Sunday PM, we will see generally 1-2 inches along the high mountains, and in Central and Northern NC. At this point, we're not expecting much flooding; we would only see some if a storm trains over the same area. Most of these areas desperately need the rain. 2-4 inches in the orange-area parts of the mountians/foothills and then coastal areas. Along the coast, the front could enhance rain at times, so we could see some bursts of heavy rainfall. Across the Foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment, we could see some localized flooding in flood-prone areas if heavier rain sets up, so we will watch it. The rainfall forecast is still fluid, and with any tropical system can change, so stay tuned and don't take it literally this is using my best knowledge of the setup and models to make this.

Wind: Winds will really not be a concern but some gusty winds of 20-35MPH are possible with up to 45MPH in the mountians, maybe a couple of isolated outages in the mountians but I am really not concerned about this.

Tornado Threat: Given that NC is on the right side of the storm, and high wind shear is around, especially late Saturday into Sunday, we could see a low-end tornado threat develop in parts of Eastern/Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday, but the threat is fluid and not a certainty right now. So, stay tuned; overall, it looks pretty low. I'm watching, of course.

😎The Bottom Line: The world is not ending; we will be just fine. Minimal overall impact: This system is moving fast and isn't a repeat of Helene; the weekend won't be a washout and will feature plenty of dry time, including a trending-dry race in Charlotte. Rainfall: Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain across central and northern areas, and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains, foothills, and coast, bringing mostly beneficial moisture but a localized risk of flooding in vulnerable spots. Minor Wind & Low Tornado Risk: Sustained winds and gusts (20–35 MPH, up to 45 MPH in the mountains) are mostly a minor nuisance, though a low-end, highly fluid tornado threat will be monitored across Eastern and Central NC late Saturday night into Sunday. Stay tuned on that. This is the forecast as I see it now, but remember it is a science and things can and will change, so I'll do my best to keep you posted!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Low chance of tropical development off the SE US coast

ncwxauthority

Jun 11, 2024

2 min read

On Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to bring substantial rain to the state of Florida over the next few days; after that, it’ll move into the Atlantic Ocean and meet a cold front. There is a low chance of sown tropical development off the SE United States; the good news is it’ll be moving away from North Carolina as a front will push it away. Regardless of development, there is a risk of some increased surf and rip currents along the NC coast later this week and over the weekend. It should not directly impact North Carolina now; if anything changes, I’ll let you know. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 7 days. We have a long season to go, and it’ll be here every step of the way.

Read more from the National Hurricane Center below;

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Offshore Southeast U.S.:

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is

producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system is expected to move northeastward across Florida during

the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later

this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally

unfavorable, although some slow development is possible when the

system is offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast. Regardless of

development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida

during the next few days. For more information, see products issued

by the Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service

Forecast Offices.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Mountains

Raleigh area

Low chance of tropical development off the SE US coast

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