Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.

In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!

Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.

Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.

Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely

monitor the progress of this system.

I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

Friday, January 1st, 2021 Welcome to 2021

ncwxauthority
Dec 31, 2020
1 min read

Welcome to 2021, the same raw weather followed us into the new year. Happy New Year, North Carolina! I hope you have a wonderful New Year, and we can all look forward to a better and brighter time; thank you for always following the page.

Unfortunately, today will be a carbon copy of yesterday. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog this morning and on and off rain, the rain will be around through the day in waves. A few areas of rain could be heavy at times, another good day to stay inside and enjoy some movies or football. The coverage should be about 70% of the state; odds are you should have some dry time but still foggy and wet.

Temperatures are another challenging thing; we're still in the Cold Air Damming/Wedge; it appears temperatures should warm into the 60s across parts of Eastern and Coastal NC. However, to the west, I've opted to go lower than most model guidance due to the fact that wedges are notorious for slowing warming, and models are a warm bias on this type of setup. Highs for areas from Greenville west to the mountains will be in the 30s and 40s with some 50s far east, model guidance is slightly higher, but due to the setup, I've gone lower as we usually don't warm with CAD events away from the coast.

There is some good news for Saturday, temperatures should warm considerably, and we should see some drier time weather.