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Mountains

Strong to severe storm chance mainly across Eastern NC on Tuesday.

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CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Another round of strong to severe storms is possible today, but this time the threat shifts east and northeast into Eastern sections of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk, placing most areas east and northeast of Raleigh under a level 2/5 risk and a level 1/5 risk for the rest of Central NC to about Greensboro. Why? Well, an approaching cold front moving into the mountains will trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


Temperatures in the 80s and low 90s, with dew points in the lower 70s, should support CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon and evening across parts of Central and Eastern NC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop as early as lunchtime and be around through the evening from west to east, but not everyone will see rain or storms.


A couple of storms could turn strong to severe, mainly from 12-8PM across parts of Eastern and esp NE NC. The main threat is gusty to damaging straight-line winds and some small hail, but I can't with 100% confience rule out a brief tornado mainly across Eastern/NE NC in the level 2/5, but better (low chance further north and east in the level 2 and lower south in the level 2/5) because of a lower risk of storms.




The Bottom Line: A cold front is moving through the mountains, bringing a few showers as the atmosphere warms up, and showers and thunderstorms are expected east, and a few could be strong to severe. So no reason to panic, but just like Western areas saw yesterday, we should stay aware east. I'll be watching the radar and trends all day like normal. Stay tuned! We turn drier and cooler for Wednesday before our heat wave starts late week into next week.


-Ethan

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Freezing Rain is Possible for some Saturday cold rain for most.

Winter Weather (ICE) is Possible for some on Saturday; no it is not the end of the world. No, you don't need to raid the grocery stores. I'll explain below that a robust low pressure will move through the state on Saturday, bringing a brief period of Winter Weather before all areas transition to a cold and miserable rain.

Friday will be cold and quiet with partly sunny skies with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

A low-pressure system will impact North Carolina, and moisture will over spread the state early Saturday with rain likely on and off throughout the day statewide. .50-2" of rain likely across the state.

Here's my thinking with my first call Freezing Rain Map: As of this evening, there is no reason to freak out; this will not be a significant event. We will see rain for most of Central and Eastern NC, a cold rain throughout the day on Saturday up to 2" of rain possible in spots.

(Dark Pink: Foothills Area) Rain will begin as Freezing rain. Freezing rain is when a warm nose aloft forms and precipitation falls as rain, but the temperatures at the ground are below freezing, so the rain freezes on contact. This area across the Foothills will see some freezing rain Saturday morning through about 12PM before models show warmer temperatures changing everyone to plain rain. Up to .25" of Ice Accrual will be possible through about midday Saturday before temperatures warm above freezing.

Impacts: Ice accrual will be on elevated surfaces and roads on Saturday morning. Some slick spots are possible, so be careful on the roads early. Travel on roads Saturday morning across the foothills will be dangerous, and a few isolated power outages will be possible due to ice accumulation on trees. Any ice accrual should be gone by the afternoon as temperatures warm.



(Light Pink) A light glaze of ice will be possible on elevated surfaces and some roads/bridges Saturday morning before the Freezing Rain changes to plain rain as temperatures warm.

In the mountains, a light accumulation of sleet/snow is possible, but I hate to tell you this will not be a snowstorm for NC.

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for Freezing Rain for the following counties Alexander-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-

Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Transylvania-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes: These counties are where we could see the most ice accrual that will cause travel impacts and some scattered power outages.

Central and Eastern NC should see just a cold rain no impacts expected.

The Bottom Line: This will not be a snowstorm for North Carolina; the vast majority is a rain event. Some winter weather is possible across Western areas during the morning before changing over to rain. Regardless of where you are in NC, Saturday will not be a good day for outside activities. If you're a snow lover this is not your storm hate to break it to you. A cold, miserable rain will be the theme.

 
 
 

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