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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 7:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

Forecast Wednesday, February 10th, 2021

Welcome back the clouds and dreary ugh weather to the state, just the messenger. Happy Wednesday, North Carolina! After a warm day yesterday, we will not have the same setup today. We will have a backdoor cold front that will drop through the state today, which will bring cooler weather and a northeast wind with mostly cloudy skies for most. We will start the morning with clouds/fog and even some patchy drizzle in spots, that should clear by late morning, and we can expect mostly cloudy skies. There's the potential for at least some clearing this afternoon, but most should stay cloudy; the best chance for sunshine will be across the southwestern part of the state from Asheville to Murphy, but some areas to the east could see some clearing this afternoon and evening but don't count on it to be too much.




Temperatures are tricky today; based on the model data, we should have temperatures much warmer than I'm forecasting, but I'm leaning old school and discounting the warmer model data. Temperatures are another challenging thing; we're moving into a Cold Air Damming/Wedge; it appears temperatures should warm into the 50s across parts of Southeastern and Coastal NC. However, to the west, I've opted to go lower than most model guidance due to the fact that wedges are notorious for slowing warming, and models are a warm bias on this type of setup. So I've taken about 4-6° off for most locations highs should range in the 40s to low 50s across most of the state with upper 50s to the southwestern part of the state.

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