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Tropical Update: The tropics are beginning to get more active. Watching!

ncwxauthority

August 11, 2026 at 2:20:12 PM

🌀 Tropical Update: Good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure everyone is sick of working on this fine Tuesday, so as you take your scroll break from work, I thought you'd love to read my tropical update. In true fashion as we head toward the start of schools/colleges, the tropics are coming alive, and this year is no different. I am, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring two main areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean and two areas in the Pacific Ocean, with one showing a potential threat to Hawaii.


In the Atlantic, we have an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic moving away from the United States that has a low chance 20% of some Tropical Development over the next 5-7 days, but does not pose any threat to NC!


Down in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, we've had several tropical waves that are moving off Africa over the next 5-10 days, and some are trying to show signs of development. There is now a 70% from the National Hurricane Center that a Tropical Depression or Storm will develop in this area. There remains high wind shear and dry air, so it'll face an uphill battle as it moves generally westward across the Atlantic. Since the system has not even developed, let's take models with a grain of salt and not jump to too many conclusions, but the threat to North Carolina at this point is rather low. So there's no reason to worry at this point.


Image 2: Is a graphic I created to give you an idea how long it takes tropical systems to travel across the Atlantic Ocean (NOT A FORECAST), just an example. This location is 10-14 days away, and it may not even survive the trek across. There could be some enhanced moisture to parts of the Caribbean Islands which they very much need.


Over in the Pacific, there is an area of disturbed weather over 1k miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands that has a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Storm. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely


monitor the progress of this system.


I'll keep you posted all season long; nothing to worry about right now in NC!

Mountains

110°F

Raleigh area

CADEN NELSON

CADEN NELSON

FORECAST: Tuesday, July 21, 2020, same old same hot with a few storms possible

A little hotter than today, but what is the difference at this point now! Happy Tuesday, North Carolina! The upper-level ridge has been stuck over North Carolina and will only be shifting a little bit to the east today, mostly sunny skies likely with highs hot again in the mid-upper 90s outside of the mountains and 80s in the mountains. Dangerous Heat index values expected again 100-113° outside of the mountains, please be careful! Another round of garden thunderstorms expected between 2-9PM today, the best chance will be in the mountain and Foothills, but areas to the east will see a few. A few boundaries and a surface trough leftover from yesterday will help develop the storms, as we've seen for weeks now some neighborhoods will see storms while others see nothing. The bottom line is, a few people will see thunderstorms, while most will stay dry and hot. Thunderstorms can have a variety of threats, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. One or two could be severe, with damaging winds up to 60 MPH.


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