Forecast Tuesday, January 26th, 2021
Another interesting day weather-wise across the state, with a wide range in temperatures. Happy Tuesday, North Carolina! As I talked about yesterday, temperatures appeared to be tricky for today with Cold Air damming in place. This morning we will start out with cloudy skies and areas fog with some rain likely especially this morning; by the afternoon, most of the rain should clear and we should be left with some patchy drizzle. Skies should stay mostly cloudy, it is possible some clearing happens across the mountains as some drier air works in, but I expected the Cold Air Damming (CAD) to stay in place east. Along the coast, mainly in southeastern NC, a warm front will bring in some warmer air, but skies should stay mostly cloudy.
Temperatures are tricky today; based on the model data, we should have temperatures much warmer than I'm forecasting, but I'm leaning old school and discounting the warmer model data. Temperatures are another challenging thing; we're still in the Cold Air Damming/Wedge; it appears temperatures should warm into the 60s across parts of Southeastern and Coastal NC. However, to the west, I've opted to go lower than most model guidance due to the fact that wedges are notorious for slowing warming, and models are a warm bias on this type of setup. So I've taken about 4-6° off for most locations highs should range in the upper 40s to low and mid-50s across most of the state with 60s to the down in southeast NC. Temperatures will be slightly warmer west of Hickory near the mountains to just east in the Western Foothills. I can't rule out some temperatures being slightly higher or lower, forecasting is a science, and I am going with experience rather than modeling for temperatures today.